Forum Archive Index - January 2001

[Gerry Tyler-Smith <g.tylersmith@ext.canterbury.ac.nz>]

Thank you, Douglas for sharing  those stats, which are very helpful to
mathmatically- challenged people who nevertheless enjoy the investment game.

>      "I noticed an article this morning which includes the information
>that  analysts' earnings forecasts in the U.S. are inaccurate by an
>average of  44%. "     I did some analysis of NZ brokers' figures for
>myself.   For 46 NZSE companies last year  with consensus  earnings'
>forecasts from more than one broker I found that:   23 companies' earnings
>were underestimated. 2 companies' earnings were predicted exactly
>correctly. 21 companies' earnings were  overestimated.   Of the 23
>underestimates, 11 estimates were within 5% of  the correct earnings
>figure and the median size of underestimate was just  5.3%.   Of the 21
>overestimates, 9 estimates were within 5% of the  correct earnings figure
>and the median size of overestimate was  8.3%.   From this data, consensus
>earnings estimates in  NZ would seem to be fairly reliable. :-)  




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