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Re: [sharechat] Accuracy of Analysts' Forecasts

From:	"Douglas Stewart" <dougstew@ihug.co.nz>
Date:	Thu, 11 Jan 2001 09:41:01 +1300

"I noticed an article this morning which includes the information that analysts' earnings forecasts in the U.S. are inaccurate by an average of 44%. "

I did some analysis of NZ brokers' figures for myself.

For 46 NZSE companies last year with consensus earnings' forecasts from more than one broker I found that:

23 companies' earnings were underestimated.

2 companies' earnings were predicted exactly correctly.

21 companies' earnings were overestimated.

Of the 23 underestimates, 11 estimates were within 5% of the correct earnings figure and the median size of underestimate was just 5.3%.

Of the 21 overestimates, 9 estimates were within 5% of the correct earnings figure and the median size of overestimate was 8.3%.

From this data, consensus earnings estimates in NZ would seem to be fairly reliable. :-)

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Re: [sharechat] Accuracy of Analysts' Forecasts Gerry Tyler-Smith

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