Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["Malcolm Eves" <malcolm@easternasset.co.nz>]

Hugh,
I think the underwriters CSFB couldn't give a toss about how much they pick
up. Their maximum exposure is $427m if no one took up the rights. That's not
even US$200m. Chicken feed to an organization that can then go to the world
markets and then on sell a meaningful stake in an undervalued company to an
interested party. Of course it's not going to be anything like that and
actually if there has been a 50% take up probably more annoying that the
pick up wasn't bigger.
What ever happens FFS is going to emerge as a totally different prospect in
the next few months as a recapitalised company with little debt. As for
CITIC I just hope the Board is bloody-minded about the Chinese and don't get
put off the scent. The Chinese playing the "racist" card in communications
is akin to what is dished to NZer's over anything to do with maoris.
Pathetic, and something to make you feel guilty. I don't think the FFS board
will be too bothered as they seem to have made a good job of stuffing FFS up
to now so a few Chinese trying to screw out some cheap NZ assets  shouldn't
be a bother. Play hard ball I say. Just think of all those good kiwi
entrepreneurs who have gone off to China to do business and been screwed. We
have some catch-up to do!
----- Original Message -----
From: "hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, December 05, 2000 6:13 PM
Subject: [sharechat] Re: FFS


> Presumably if the underwriters are having their arms twisted
> to take up masses of unwanted FFS shares, and despite
> rather obvious and massive manipulation, the FFS price is
> only just staying at 25 cents with some dips below before
> frantic activity rescues it again......then there is going to be
> some very large scale dumping of shares after the rights issue is
> settled.
> The conspiracy theories seem a little far fetched to me of
> Citic buying up heaps of rights altho they've obviously got their
> dander up and are doing their best to rain on the FFS rights party.
> I would think they are trying to minimise their exposure rather
> than maximise it. The further downstream in added value
> processing a company is from the raw commodity the better
> they do so I can't really see Norske Skog diving in.
> Observers have noted that Fletcher wouldn't be unhappy to
> see the CNFP go into receivership as it (Fletcher) has a
> mortgage on its assets no doubt contributing to Citic's bad
> temper at being outmanoeuvred.
> Fascinating stuff but probably not a good time to dive
> overboard on dreams of huge FFS rebounds with the US
> (and world economy) slowing down and I thought I saw
> something about log prices in south Korea weakening.
> Wasn't it nice of Fletcher to give out those two lots of
> free FFS shares in recent years.
>
> cheers,
> Hugh
>
>
>
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