Forum Archive Index - December 2000

[Gerry Tyler-Smith <g.tylersmith@ext.canterbury.ac.nz>]

Wow!  Thanks for those insights, esp on activities of underwriters.  Re log
prices in Korea... I asked  Arthur Lim about that, and he said it was the
world  oversupply of logs, that really  mattered, not individual customers.
Apparently when the prices of logs were really high, several years ago,
Japanese coys investd a lot in infrastructure in Siberia, to extract logs,
which led to an oversupply. However, he maintains that logging
infrastucture, ie roads and transport, need to be expensively and
constantly renewed to stay close to the area of logging, and that as log
prices bottomed, that infrastructure would not be renewed, which would
eventually lead to a log shortage, and then rise in prices (ie, the typical
commodity price cycle).

>Presumably if the underwriters are having their arms twisted
>to take up masses of unwanted FFS shares, and despite
>rather obvious and massive manipulation, the FFS price is
>only just staying at 25 cents with some dips below before
>frantic activity rescues it again......then there is going to be
>some very large scale dumping of shares after the rights issue is
>settled.
>The conspiracy theories seem a little far fetched to me of
>Citic buying up heaps of rights altho they've obviously got their
>dander up and are doing their best to rain on the FFS rights party.
>I would think they are trying to minimise their exposure rather
>than maximise it. The further downstream in added value
>processing a company is from the raw commodity the better
>they do so I can't really see Norske Skog diving in.
>Observers have noted that Fletcher wouldn't be unhappy to
>see the CNFP go into receivership as it (Fletcher) has a
>mortgage on its assets no doubt contributing to Citic's bad
>temper at being outmanoeuvred.
>Fascinating stuff but probably not a good time to dive
>overboard on dreams of huge FFS rebounds with the US
>(and world economy) slowing down and I thought I saw
>something about log prices in south Korea weakening.
>Wasn't it nice of Fletcher to give out those two lots of
>free FFS shares in recent years.
>
>cheers,
>Hugh
>
>
>
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