Forum Archive Index - November 2000

[RIL <ril99_99@yahoo.co.uk>]

Have just been reviewing US debt which now stands at
nearly 6 trillion us dollars. This is money owed by
the US to other countries; including Japan.

Then the earnings re-adjust came through for HP and I
thought about what will happen when the perennial
problem of a grossly over-inflated US stockmarket
comes home to roost.

The tremendous debt payments of the US are able to be
made because of the high tax take and corporate
profitability.

This will not off course continue and one wonders with
the continuing US deficits where it will all end.

My valuation of a fair value for the NASDAQ is around
1200 to 1800; the Dow 5000 to 7000 (at current rates
of profitability). When the downturn comes profits
will fall and these levels will need to be lower.
Factor in the hysteria and we are eventually going to
see some pretty horrible things.

Surprisingly, the NZ dollar will not be a bad place to
have your money especially when the reds are kicked
out in 2 years.

Mark my words, there will be no soft landing when the
US market goes over. However, your decision.

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