Forum Archive Index - August 2000

["Philip Robinson" <robph639@student.otago.ac.nz>]

Nick,

 

I think your choice is very defensive, but justified when the reward is viewed. I would tend to be a little more aggressive. Can one choose WBC or ANZ which would give a good chance at life after three years. They both have consistent share price appreciation with an active capital mangement programme. Although WBC has a chequered past but it seems back on track.

Have just read  "Westpac - The Bank that Broke the Bank" a history of the bank and its dealings with AGC, AMP, PPL etc.. Would recommend it to anyone who is interested in Banking, or who is ignorant about that sort of thing, as I am. Am also reading Intelligent Investor by B. Graham which is also interesting and also talks a lot about Bonds, is there any market for NZ corporate bonds etc that little people can be in (<5K)? Would be intrested if anyone out there has direct bond investments.

 

WHS is my NZ pick because of consistent growth. I thought CEN would be above listing price 18/12 later but they are not so I am weary about its long term prospects to give some consistent showing, it would seem to be a love hate relationship with investors. WHS is quite risky but they have been good performers in the past years.

 

NZ based stock I would choose WHS.

NZ listed stock choice WBC.

 

Phil

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: nick

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, August 13, 2000 11:04 AM

Subject: [sharechat] Best nz share to hold for 3 years?

        Here is a little sunday exercise for you.

Imagine you had to put everything you owned into

just one stock that is listed on the NZSE. That stock then had

to be held for three years.  If that stock was lower after three years

you would die a horrible death, which would you choose

 

        I will start the ball rolling. I would be looking for something

rather safe which would have little obvious downside, combined with

some prospects for growth.

            I looked at several and rejected them on the grounds something

 bad might happen such as really bad harvests (montana etc) or terrible

economic decline in nz. (restaurant brands etc)  Or the dollar suddenly taking off

to very high levels  (tourism, and exporters)

          

   In the end i decided on contact energy (very sad) . I figured

that electricity would be needed no matter what, the company can

maintain profits by passing on problems to the consumer, and the present

share price is already nice and cheap.

    Prospects for growth in three years are unlikely to be spectacular but

 it would be a major suprise if the share price was lower that it is now.

       Would i survive?

 

 nick