Forum Archive Index - August 2000

["nick" <acummin@es.co.nz>]

        Here is a little sunday exercise for you.

Imagine you had to put everything you owned into

just one stock that is listed on the NZSE. That stock then had

to be held for three years.  If that stock was lower after three years

you would die a horrible death, which would you choose

 

        I will start the ball rolling. I would be looking for something

rather safe which would have little obvious downside, combined with

some prospects for growth.

            I looked at several and rejected them on the grounds something

 bad might happen such as really bad harvests (montana etc) or terrible

economic decline in nz. (restaurant brands etc)  Or the dollar suddenly taking off

to very high levels  (tourism, and exporters)

          

   In the end i decided on contact energy (very sad) . I figured

that electricity would be needed no matter what, the company can

maintain profits by passing on problems to the consumer, and the present

share price is already nice and cheap.

    Prospects for growth in three years are unlikely to be spectacular but

 it would be a major suprise if the share price was lower that it is now.

       Would i survive?

 

 nick