Forum Archive Index - July 2000

["Colin Ross" <ceejaynz@xtra.co.nz>]

My worries in WHS would revolve around stock turn.
Retailers bleed money when merchandise remains unsold.
As long as the number of doors increase, there will be places to put the
merchandise, but when the plateau is reached, time to worry !
Ceejay
----- Original Message -----
From: Mark Hubbard <mhubbard@es.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, July 14, 2000 8:59 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] WHS still undervalued


> -----
> From: Peter Maiden <pmaiden@today.com.au>
>
> > Based on NZ earnings alone my own DCF (at a modest risk rate) is 520-550
> per share. Add to that acquired Aust earnings at a higher risk rate over
all
> DCF is in excess of 900.
>
>
> I like your analysis Peter, but IMHO your DCF valuations are too high,
> especially the $9.00. My own DCF valuation, including Aussie (which
remember
> Tindell has stated will only slowly increase earnings per share) is a
value
> range of about $4.90 through to $5.20.
>
> To get your values you must be using quite a low discount factor, and I
> suspect earnings growth of over 20% for the next 10 years. The company has
> managed earnings growth of 21% average over the last 7 years, I think for
> them to continue that now for the next 10 years is unrealistic. I suspect
NZ
> is almost saturated (this is where our opinions mainly differ I suspect) -
> also, remember that low NZ$ and the coming ERB (which for me, given the
> young staff, increases the discount factor that has to be used).
>
> Of course only time will tell which of us is right. It will be interesting
> to get others opinions.
>
> Cheers
>
>
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