Forum Archive Index - July 2000

[Brian Gale <brigale@i4free.co.nz>]

Hi John

        

It's not
just the newbies that have the ' when to sell syndrome'  It is
general. We sell and buy into something else only to see our previous Coy
do better than the new one !!  You can get plenty of ideas on buying
but selling is another matter.

        

Both
companies, you mention, are sound and you have a capital gain on
both.  Presumably you have also received dividends. Maybe you think
you should be doing better with your funds employed ?
You need to keep track of the coy's announcements to get the feel
of  what they are doing and what you think their future prospects
will be.  Having done that you can look at others and do the same
exercise. Then you can take the plunge (remembering that you are going to
have to deduct the broker's fees from your profits ) and try your new
choice if you think it is going  to do better in the prevalent
economic climate.  But don't forget that some Companies are highly
speculative as to their future prospects so the risk of  rapid
downward movement is always there.

      

You must ask yourself why are you investing ? Are you looking for a
return on your savings that is better than you would get from a term
investment or are you hoping to get rich quick ? If the latter you are in
a different ball-game. You need to consider the pros & cons of
becoming a trader (refer to previous postings on that subject).
 
As an investor patience is the key. Many advisers will talk about 3
years, which sounds an awful long time,  but a sound well managed
company can make big strides over that period of time resulting in good
returns to its shareholders. I know that for many there is ' the thrill
of the chase'  we get impatient when nothing much seems to be
happening with our picks and we see others which are moving
upwards.  We all miss chances - it's all part of the game - win
one/lose one. Overall with a diversified portfolio we hope to come out
ahead, ending up with a reasonable gain.

But getting back to your question with LNN & CAV . If I were holding
these, on the evidence I collect, I would be inclined to hold LNN as it's
future prospects look good and perhaps sell CAV because it is undergoing
a period of consolidation, having disposed of its wool processing
division. But that is my opinion you have to make your own based on the
data you collect.  And if you sell what are going to buy that is
better ?? Some of the recent fast movers may have done their dash and
flatten out or recede.  So again do your homework.

Bit of a rigmarole, hope its of some use or at least provokes
thought.

Regards
Brian


At 14:28 12-07-00 +1200, you wrote:
> I guess I suffer from every
> newbies complaint. The when to sell syndrome.
> I have read so many articles, postings etc and it would
> appear for every idea to do one thing there is a multitude of contra
> ideas.
> I have been sitting looking at Lion Nathan and Cavallier
> which I paid $4.36 and $3.15 for respectively. Like everyone I want to
> sell at the highest point but I just can't seem to get a handle on when
> to sell.
> Cavallier for instance I have watched and my belief is it
> seems to rise to around this level and drop back a little repeating this
> process over and over. Is it a stock that is likely to contribute much
> more to capital gains on the price I paid?
> Similarly Lion Nathan appears to be pegging up nicely but
> for how long?
> I feel these two stocks are a pretty good risk type to hang
> onto and have held themselves up pretty well while the market has done
> its downward spin. I think that when the market wants to kick off again
> maybe these two will take off again from a higher platform than say some
> lower yielding stocks. Could this be a logical assumption?
> My problem is I don't want to keep sinking more money into
> the stock market without making some gains in which to use to reinvest
> into the market. Hence my inability to try and formulate some sort of a
> selling plan.
> I am going to have a look at the Henley range of charting
> etc seminars this weekend..  maybe that will help considering their
> programs are free. 
> Anyone got any bright ideas on how to formulate a selling
> and of course buying plan....   and..  any comments on the
> Henley software??  Does it help clear muddy waters or does it bring
> more chaos into a disorganised situation??
>  
> Much thanks...   John.