Forum Archive Index - May 2000

[Chris <cd@ak.planet.gen.nz>]

Warner,

There are some good reasons for AIRVA/VB *and* QANTAS to be down.

1)  Contraction in spending in both NZ and AU.
2)  Arrival/expansion of IMPULSE AIRLINES on the high volume routes in 
AU(forget Virgin).
3)  Fiji coup will erode profits from high value package tourism out of 
NZ and AU.
4)  Price escalation of aviation fuel.
5)  The Singapore deal is done and all the potential buyers for VA & VB 
shares have gone.

Regards,
Chris
cd@pl.net




>Yes, It seems a crazy discount to Singapores $3.00 stand just weeks
>ago...well about 30% at $2.15.
>If you look at AIRVA..@$1.81 gives PE3.9  Yield8.3%  and last NTA 357c and
>profit $258m..They must be thinking where the hell are we going wrong!
>The good things must be alliance with singapore and Olympics and Tourism and
>safety record and good reputation and modern fleet and dominance and I hear
>they're stepping up their internet presence,so even margins can increase by
>cutting out agents.You mentioned one problem,oil and I suppose Virgin? but I
>can't think of much else.Also if the internet grows at such high speeds,then
>surely global deliveries must increase as our borders decrease...Who's going
>to deliver that must have item from overseas..A ship?  And does it look
>undervalued at almost half NTA...must be?.comments on downsides please (ex
>crashes)
>Warner.

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