Forum Archive Index - March 2000

["G Christie" <bayvu@ihug.co.nz>]

Hugh, CDL Investments, according to the Investment Yearbook 1999, was Kupe
(ring any bells? ouch!).Land develop. is their business. They're in property
speculation in Henderson Auck. Knight Frank is a subsidiary co. They're 59%
owned by CDL Hotels. Hong Leong Group (Singapore) have a connection. Today's
Herald reports they're going to pay a div. soon (they didn't last time). I
don't know about recent developments. Cheers
-----Original Message-----
From: hugh webber <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Date: Saturday, 11 March 2000 09:13
Subject: [sharechat] Selecting Good Recovery Stocks on the NZSE


>well folks I thought I'd make time to do something I haven't
>previously got around to, an across the board look at NZSE
>stocks. Unfortunately Sharechat seems to spend 99% of its
>time discussing 5% of the stocks (is that too generous?) and
>some of it is in terms of scuttlebutt - which I admit is interesting
>and sometimes useful when its correct but I'd hate to make decisions
>on the basis of that alone unsupported by facts. The vast majority
>of the NZSE stocks never get discussed at all. Sad but true.
>
>Looking at the sharetable in The Press today I picked the 40 shares
>that are at or near their lows over the last year. I left out one or two
>complete losers, one or two which are essentially overseas stocks
>but I left in those about which I know nothing in the hope that others
>could supply comment. There are 148 shares in the table and I would
>point out that I've left out the Unlisted Market (lack of quick easy data)
>and I think there are quite a few companies which don't operate even
>on the Unlisted Market but which you can buy by writing to the company
>secretary like Summerfruit Orchards. (no, I'm not advocating Summerfruit
>its just an example).
>
>Air NZ A. Having a cash issue which Kiwis hate. Ansett I think is in strike
>problems. Buffett analyses airlines as commodity sellers (output only
>differentiated by price, no or low barriers to entry) and won't touch them.
>Air continues to get outmuscled by Qantas and Singapore etc. Any cut
>price operator large or small can force big drops in ticket prices. I
>wouldn't
>touch them these days.
>
>Arthur Barnett. Dunedin mostly, and Chch, just completing big building &
>revitalisation initiatives. Is down because of this work in progress. Could
>be
>an interesting little flutter as it claws up again.
>
>BIL. Nuff said already I think. Until it gets rid of Thistle Hotels (UK),
>Air NZ and
>Molokai Ranch any initiative it makes is totally lost in the huge
>unproductive
>overhang of non performing assets. I prefer to be marked by the markets on
>this one
>and yesterday the market said they were worth 36 cents compared to their yr
>low
>of 35 cents.
>
>Capital Properties. Best yield on the market I think. Due for a 57 cents
>call on 30
>June which is depressing the price. Good quality government properties 99%
>tenanted in Wgtn. Recently took over Shortland Properties in Auckland 90%
>tenanted. If you want yield/income that is probably sustainable this is it.
>(sorry,
>I'm bisassed, I've bought heaps incl chunks at 32/33 cents).
>
>CDL Hotels NZ. If they are still hotels then they have the hotel disease
>same as
>Thistle in the UK. Probably due to commodisation - any improvement and
>someone
>puts up new hotels and/or converts office blocks to hotels. Things like
>Americas Cup
>only last small part of the yr even though they're high profile.
>
>CDL Investments. Don't know them, any comment?
>
>Designer Textiles. A sad case, I thought they were being taken over or
>going under but
>I haven't kept up with the play. Any comment?
>
>Evergreen Forests. Forests unfortunately are commodities altho they're on
>some sort
>of recovery at the mo. Evergreen has a tie up with one or two larger US
>investment outfits
>who have put money into it and it has been expanding over recent years
>quite strongly.
>Anyone know when they start cutting in a big way? could be interesting with
>a perfectly
>timed entry and exit.
>
>FCL Building. I suppose they are dragged down by the uncertainty of when
>the letter stocks
>will be untied. They have been recommended a lot at rather higher levels as
>a good bet to go
>with the NZ economy recovery.
>
>FCL Forests. Some comments from Evergreen and FCL Building apply. Anyone
>know when
>they start cutting in a big way? There was the comment that they were
>actually the easiest
>of the letter stocks to extricate and we did have the debate over debt
>levels which turned out to
>be reasonable. Interesting technology tie in with Genesis and smal
>investment in Genesis.
>
>Goodman Fielder. Essentially overseas now. Makes trendy comments about
>getting into Asia,
>management reorganisation, growth, but the data always sadly lags the talk.
>
>
>Guinnees Peat. One of the few that has been discussed a bit. Its not just
>Sir Ron Brierley but
>he has some other bright cookies on board such as Dr Gary Weiss
>(Disclosure: I used to play
>soccer with him at Uni.) 1% debt, net conservative asset values of over
>$2.00 a share vs market
>price of $1.40. Talk about throwing pearls before swine....esp given its
>track record and the increasing
>number of plays its in and succeeding at. Only the E-tech tulip mania could
>do this to it....
>
>Hallenstein Glasson. Good management, expanding soundly into Australia via
>a successful beachhead
>in Melbourne. Sorted out its buying problems. Is occasionally recommended.
>Good track record of
>continuing steady growth and paying decent dividends. Good yield/income
>stock for the 20% of investors
>who usually get trampled on in sharechat.
>
>Hellaby. Has done some good things and is soundly managed,Tur Borren &.
>Probably suffers from being a conglomerate
>when sharp integrated focus is now the thing. Unfortunately recalls Westmex
>and Russell Goward the hero
>from IEL who plunged into shoes in the Uk and sank without trace. I think
>people may be more excited when
>it exits Hannahs and finds some more trendy investments. Although boring
>investments which make lots of
>money are preferable.
>
>Infratil. I have a small holding but I must admit I haven't kept up with
>the play and why they sank from $1.48 to
>$1.13 this year. Maybe something to do with Labour and its regulation
>plans? Very good management and track
>record. I'd be interested to hear what, if anything has gone wrong or is it
>just missing the E and .dot. Maybe Infratil@tech would do the trick?
>
>Well, there's probably a limit on how much one posting will take so I'm off
>with the dog and will do some more later.
>Wonder if there's any good investments in dogfood...
>
>
>
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