Forum Archive Index - March 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I guess Carter Holt must also be viewed as a good recovery stock
although the share table shows it at $1.90 vs a year low of $1.60.
It could also be on the takeover list at any time with International
Paper at 51% of CAH and the pickings have never been easier with
the weak NZ dollar compared to the price IP got the 51% at, would
you believe $3.80 (I'm afraid I sold then!). Its profit (CAH) has been
strongly recovering, its got a huge amount of cash coming back from Chile
in the next few months plus the big profit involved. The only thing on the
takeover prospect is that IP is busy I believe with some other much bigger 
takeovers overseas and thinks Junior can wait.

Kingsgate Intnl. Isn't this another hotel case with the comments made on
CDL applying again. - commoditisation, irregular flows, low barriers to
entry,
lots of competition.

Kiwi Income. The unfashionable commercial ppty sector strikes again. There
was a comment in the paper yesterday that the office sector is suffering
from
low growth (people working from home more?) and decentralisation altho I 
haven't really seen any significant cases of decentralisation cited. But
commercial
ppty seems to be the place to go if you want the yield. I believe there was
one
small operator (not Kiwi) who developed some substantial vacancies and
abolished its
dividend and everyone has been running scared since then. There is also
some rule
of thumb that a ppty coy needs a portfolio of at least $800 million to rise
above the
danger of embarassing vacancies leading to dividend cuts. 

Lion Nathan. Price $3.31, low for the year $3.31, who would believe it.
With the huge
Japanese brewer Kirin as major shareholder there's obviously no shortage of
heavy
backing. I did sell out myself a few years ago when I saw the data of
monotonically
declining beer consumption in NZ & Oz and they did catch China disease
which
hasn't helped. Actually I was incredulous when I saw their price bounding
away over
$4.40. They have a hard row to hoe against the tough Aussies. Not sure
what's happening
with their liquor outlets with the Sunday and supermarket & trading. Any
comments?

Max Resources. I've stayed out of risky minerals but others may like to
comment.

McConnel Dowell. Building and construction. Mainly overseas now aren't
they? Any comments?
I haven't followed them for a while but I previously had the impression
they were going pretty
well but they must have struck some sort of rough patch.

National Ppty. Commercial ppty comments again. I don't really know this
one...any comments?

Nufarm, FERNZ that was. Discussed previously in the Forum several times.
Must be a real 
steal if you looking for capital recovery and not tax imputed NZ dividends.
Affected by Index 
Fund ditching because they are no longer in NZ indexes and ditching for tax
reasons. Surely 
these special factors are drying up and thsi seems to be confirmed in the
price now being
$3.41 vs the low of $3.28. Remember when they used to be stable at $5.55 on
the NZSE
before they decided to migrate and yet their profits have only grown since
then with lots
of strategic niches and arrangements in agricultural chemicals worldwide.
Surely they
must become a takeover target too...

NZ Oil and Gas. Victim of the classic dry hole in off-shore Taranaki. Those
who follow
them say there's other assets, producing and prospective plus the old cross
holding
with Otter which Sir Ron wants to unwind and that 29 cents doesn't do them
justice.

NZ Refining. $8.20 - remember when they used to be stable at $44 a year or
two ago?
what happened? I haven't really followed it, did BP/Shell/Mobil/Caltex
decide to take their
profit out some other way? did the Commerce Commission lean on them?  

Owens Group. An old favourite of mine that is perennially passed up by the
brokers in favour
of Mainfreight without explanation. Expanding well in Australia and a gross
yield of 13%
would you believe. Just because Bob Owens died a few months ago doesn't
mean much
re Owens these days does it?

Ports of Auckland. Heavily discounted since they lost one piece of
container business to 
Port of Tauranga. However they're much bigger than Tauranga and I believe
will strong arm
Tauranga just like Qantas does Air NZ. Relatively low yield now, after all
those big exciting
capital paybacks.

Prop Leader ANZ. More commercial ppty. I know nothing about them
..Comments?

Richina. The old China disease allied with aquariums (oh, no!) and the
pains of being
a conglomerate in tanning, hides and skins, building, and aquaria in a
world that demands
sharp integrated focus on core business. I baled out long ago.

Roller International. Um, I thought this outfit had been sized up several
times for radical
new directions with exciting new owners and was basically a shell? How come
it hasn't
caught E-tulip disease? what is going on?

Well, that will do for the mo. I'll complete the list a bit later.

cheers,
Hugh







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