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| From: | "Wedde, John" <john.wedde@cit.ac.nz> |
| Date: | Mon, 13 Mar 2000 11:52:33 +1300 |
Enjoyed your posting Hugh. I did much the same exercise myself over the weekend and interestingly came up with many of the same conclusions as you. To your list of possibly overlooked shares however I'd perhaps add a few more that, IMHO, are worth looking at: In the Agricultural sector, which seems to be recovering, Reid Farmers have great fundamentals [P/E 8.6; Div Yield 6.6] The property sector has been hammered but the yields are pretty good on some of them - echo your sentiments on Capital Properties. Southern Capital are also interesting with some very lateral rural "lifestyle" real estate developments, plus investments and connections with mussel farming in Clifford Bay [the proposed new South Island ferry terminal site], and a holding in, soon to be main board listed, Estar On Line. Can Trans Tasman go any lower? Back to the agrarian sector, horticulture company Cedenco is one I am kicking myself for not taking a stake in some months back. Profits improve, P/E is only 6.6; Div Yield 6.3 and price/nta only .62 On the second board I like Wgtn Drive Technologies but don't have any "hard" fundamentals on them. I'm interested in rumours that Walker Wireless may list. I was impressed with a visit to their web site last week. John Wedde BCA, MA, Senior Lecturer, Business Communication Programme Leader, NZ Diploma in Business Central Institute of Technology Box 40 740 Upper Hutt, New Zealand EMail: John.Wedde@cit.ac.nz <mailto:John.Wedde@cit.ac.nz> Phone: 5276397 EXT. 6747 Mobile 025843729 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& \\\ /// (O O) ---ooO-(_)-Ooo--- &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& -----Original Message----- From: hugh webber [mailto:hugh.webber@clear.net.nz] Sent: Saturday, 11 March 2000 09:18 To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz Subject: [sharechat] Selecting Good Recovery Stocks on the NZSE well folks I thought I'd make time to do something I haven't previously got around to, an across the board look at NZSE stocks. Unfortunately Sharechat seems to spend 99% of its time discussing 5% of the stocks (is that too generous?) and some of it is in terms of scuttlebutt - which I admit is interesting and sometimes useful when its correct but I'd hate to make decisions on the basis of that alone unsupported by facts. The vast majority of the NZSE stocks never get discussed at all. Sad but true. Looking at the sharetable in The Press today I picked the 40 shares that are at or near their lows over the last year. I left out one or two complete losers, one or two which are essentially overseas stocks but I left in those about which I know nothing in the hope that others could supply comment. There are 148 shares in the table and I would point out that I've left out the Unlisted Market (lack of quick easy data) and I think there are quite a few companies which don't operate even on the Unlisted Market but which you can buy by writing to the company secretary like Summerfruit Orchards. (no, I'm not advocating Summerfruit its just an example). Air NZ A. Having a cash issue which Kiwis hate. Ansett I think is in strike problems. Buffett analyses airlines as commodity sellers (output only differentiated by price, no or low barriers to entry) and won't touch them. Air continues to get outmuscled by Qantas and Singapore etc. Any cut price operator large or small can force big drops in ticket prices. I wouldn't touch them these days. Arthur Barnett. Dunedin mostly, and Chch, just completing big building & revitalisation initiatives. Is down because of this work in progress. Could be an interesting little flutter as it claws up again. BIL. Nuff said already I think. Until it gets rid of Thistle Hotels (UK), Air NZ and Molokai Ranch any initiative it makes is totally lost in the huge unproductive overhang of non performing assets. I prefer to be marked by the markets on this one and yesterday the market said they were worth 36 cents compared to their yr low of 35 cents. Capital Properties. Best yield on the market I think. Due for a 57 cents call on 30 June which is depressing the price. Good quality government properties 99% tenanted in Wgtn. Recently took over Shortland Properties in Auckland 90% tenanted. If you want yield/income that is probably sustainable this is it. (sorry, I'm bisassed, I've bought heaps incl chunks at 32/33 cents). CDL Hotels NZ. If they are still hotels then they have the hotel disease same as Thistle in the UK. Probably due to commodisation - any improvement and someone puts up new hotels and/or converts office blocks to hotels. Things like Americas Cup only last small part of the yr even though they're high profile. CDL Investments. Don't know them, any comment? Designer Textiles. A sad case, I thought they were being taken over or going under but I haven't kept up with the play. Any comment? Evergreen Forests. Forests unfortunately are commodities altho they're on some sort of recovery at the mo. Evergreen has a tie up with one or two larger US investment outfits who have put money into it and it has been expanding over recent years quite strongly. Anyone know when they start cutting in a big way? could be interesting with a perfectly timed entry and exit. FCL Building. I suppose they are dragged down by the uncertainty of when the letter stocks will be untied. They have been recommended a lot at rather higher levels as a good bet to go with the NZ economy recovery. FCL Forests. Some comments from Evergreen and FCL Building apply. Anyone know when they start cutting in a big way? There was the comment that they were actually the easiest of the letter stocks to extricate and we did have the debate over debt levels which turned out to be reasonable. Interesting technology tie in with Genesis and smal investment in Genesis. Goodman Fielder. Essentially overseas now. Makes trendy comments about getting into Asia, management reorganisation, growth, but the data always sadly lags the talk. Guinnees Peat. One of the few that has been discussed a bit. Its not just Sir Ron Brierley but he has some other bright cookies on board such as Dr Gary Weiss (Disclosure: I used to play soccer with him at Uni.) 1% debt, net conservative asset values of over $2.00 a share vs market price of $1.40. Talk about throwing pearls before swine....esp given its track record and the increasing number of plays its in and succeeding at. Only the E-tech tulip mania could do this to it.... Hallenstein Glasson. Good management, expanding soundly into Australia via a successful beachhead in Melbourne. Sorted out its buying problems. Is occasionally recommended. Good track record of continuing steady growth and paying decent dividends. Good yield/income stock for the 20% of investors who usually get trampled on in sharechat. Hellaby. Has done some good things and is soundly managed,Tur Borren &. Probably suffers from being a conglomerate when sharp integrated focus is now the thing. Unfortunately recalls Westmex and Russell Goward the hero from IEL who plunged into shoes in the Uk and sank without trace. I think people may be more excited when it exits Hannahs and finds some more trendy investments. Although boring investments which make lots of money are preferable. Infratil. I have a small holding but I must admit I haven't kept up with the play and why they sank from $1.48 to $1.13 this year. Maybe something to do with Labour and its regulation plans? Very good management and track record. I'd be interested to hear what, if anything has gone wrong or is it just missing the E and .dot. Maybe Infratil@tech would do the trick? Well, there's probably a limit on how much one posting will take so I'm off with the dog and will do some more later. Wonder if there's any good investments in dogfood... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.sharechat.co.nz/ New Zealand's home for market investors To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.sharechat.co.nz/ New Zealand's home for market investors To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.
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