Forum Archive Index - January 2000

[Nigel McCarter <n.mccarter@clear.net.nz>]

That's interesting bit of news about the brokers letter since it might
explain yesterdays collapse in share price.  But even at $5.00 Nuf is is
cheap.  On current earnings, ie not even allowing for any growth next year,
PS = 0.5, PE = 9.2, and eps = 45 cents per share.  Compared with other
agrichem companies in Australia, that is very cheap.
I hadn't heard about hurricane damage, but it appears as if the price
collapse since November is largely because of NZ index funds and residents
selling out, not because of any change in profitability or prospects for
the company.  
at $4.20 --- even if there are further declines until the move, the share
is very cheap.
Nigel

disclosure, I bought more shares yesterday

At 11:25 PM 1/26/00 +1300, you wrote:
>I don't know much about FERNZ/Nufarm, it's a company I have never followed,
>I prefer to lose my money on air lines and building materials rather than
>fertiliser and chemicals but I did receeive a letter from a broker today
>which said to take advantage of the slight upturn in price and sell. Several
>reasons
>
>- Its US manufacturing operations destroyed by hurricane Floyd
>- NZ residents won't be able to claim imputation credits
>- NZ index funds have sold out
>- Move will save $2m but revenue will grow by only 2% over the next year.
>- Company five year growth projections do not allow for any cyclical
>downturns in that period.
>
>Make of it what you will
>
>Disclosure: No interest whatsoever
>
>Cheers
>Mike H
>
>
>
>
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Nigel McCarter

Shorten the Odds 
The Short Portfolio
Box 23 019 Hamilton
Phone 64 7 858 2429 Fax 64 858 2689
Mobile 025 274 8560

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