Forum Archive Index - December 1999

["David Lau" <Akunamatata@xtra.co.nz>]

Hi Hugh,

I am very agree withyou  on the one about setting some kind of roster 
to answer any unanswer questions. I personally think that a good 
portfolio should make up from several different securities from 
different sector. 

Right now, seems like all the high tech stocks are on the hot 
list. But who knows how long will it last for before the bubble 
burst.

By the way, I got an email from Hernley Investment regarding IPO of 
Hernley Communication What do you guys think about that?



> From:          "hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
> To:            <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Subject:       [sharechat] re top ten
> Date:          Mon, 20 Dec 1999 22:56:07 +1300
> Reply-to:      sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

> I think you guys ought to pick your top 10 stocks for the year from those
> whose earnings have risen most on a sustainable basis (a bit of judgment
> there but a reasonable assessment can be made).
> 
> You'll get a totally different answer from the ones mentioned but unlike
> those you'll find that in the short/medium/long term their prices haven't
> popped like a bubble but gone on to greater heights. If Tourism Holdings
> can sustain its fourfold earnings increase (Tourism is a bit cyclical I
> concede but overall its trending up and up for NZ particularly with a
> weaker dollar and cheaper flights) then that's a guaranteed fourfold share
> price increase. 
> 
> What would you prefer, a fourfold increase in a tech with negative earnings
> based on hot air and blue sky or a fourfold increase in a stock that's
> quadrupled its earnings on a sustainable basis? Me, I'd go for the earnings
> everytime. (um, I seem to recall there a number of computer stocks (aren't
> these the sacred techs?) have gone to the wall already....lets see
> Commodore comes to mind on the local scene...) 
> 
> I loved Sarah's Buffett extract, very amusing and true. As for the
> criticism, it depends whether you have the money to altuistically throw
> away for the hopeful long term future or if you're in for a solid
> calculable profit for yourself as an investor.
> 
> A note on the forum; I see there are several people who have asked quite
> reasonable questions and been met by blank silence. (a lot of the regulars
> seem to have been having a tech riot instead).Not very encouraging for
> their future participation - surely someone can be detailed, maybe a roster
> could be set-up to make a short polite answer to otherwise ignored queries,
> so they don't just feel totally worthless and rejected.
> 
> Anyone who hasn't got 'Making Money on the New Zealand Sharemarket' by
> Newman and Briggs for Xmas ought to outlay the $29.95 and read it over the
> break. Quite readable and interesting and informative and all sorts of
> nostalgia. I note that a number of the unattributed quotes at the top of
> some of the pages are actually from Buffett (and incidentally Buffetology
> by Mary Buffett is the only Buffett book worth reading, the other two that
> came out at the same time are non analytical rubbish) and it shows quite a
> bit of influence from Mary's book.
> I see it was reviewed by Michael Coote in the Sunday Star and of course
> dear Michael couldn't resist taking a potshot at its lack of depth on
> technical (chartist) analysis. Personally I think most of Michael's
> technical work shows up the severe limitations of chartism - you only have
> to read his regular 2 articles in the NBR presumably written on the
> wed/thurs of each week to have a good laugh on Saturday to see how wrong
> most of it usually is. That's another interesting debate we ought  to have
> - on the perils of chartism, bit like astrology really and maybe the techs
> are tarot card reading or even the ouija board, never mind I'm not totally
> serious.
> 
> cheers,
> Hugh
> 
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