Forum Archive Index - December 1999

["Mr. Patient" <peter@peaktechnology.co.nz>]

On 18/12 Hugh Webber wrote:

"And I'm substantially into Telecom which I believe is a tech...."

 Like Hugh I classify myself as a 'value investor'. [I admire day/short-term traders but unfortunately I don't (yet) have enough time or cash which I could afford to lose to trade short term trends].

 

Anywise...unlike Hugh I took my profits on Telecom last week ahead of Moody's credit downgrade. Time will tell whether I could have rode its recent upswing for a few more dollars but for me it was time to sell. I would rather sell too early and sleep well at night, than find I've been too greedy and lost gains already made.

 

For my money there are better value and lower risk shares around than TEL. My reasons for getting out of TEL were:

 

1. Possible/likely regulation of TEL under the Labour/Alliance(Greens) government adversely affecting profits.

 

2. Datex average profit forecasts (which are a consensus of 10 different analysts) for YE March 2000 and 2001 have fallen significantly over recent months (due to the AAPT purchase I guess).

 

3. The current boom in tech stocks "troubles me" (as John Cage would say). Although TEL is a completely different kettle of fish to the likes of EPH, PYN et al, as a technology company I think TEL is likely to feel the effects if (when?) the tech bubble bursts.

 

I guess I'm a bit of a contrarian 'cause I figure the best time to sell is when there are a lot of buyers out there.

 

Just some thoughts for the melting pot. I'm not an investment professional so don't anyone be silly enough to base your decisions on what I think!

 

Any other 'value investors' on the list care to share your thoughts on shares worth keeping an eye on for the new year?

 

Best Christmas wishes to everyone. May year 2000 be profitable for you al!

 

Mr. Patient

 

PS: Don't get me wrong, I'm don't have anything against technology companies per se. In fact I'm a half owner of a (small) technology company.