Cautious 10-20% emissions cut target still

Monday 10th August 2009

New Zealand will commit to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by between 10% and 20% on 1990 levels over the next 11 years, as long as the rest of the world reaches a new deal on climate change, Prime Minister John Key announced today.

"In setting the target, the Government has balanced economic opportunities with environmental responsibilities. This is going to be a big ask for New Zealand because our gross emissions are already 24% abvove 1990 levels," Key said.

Based on controversial analysis from economic consultancies Infometrics and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, the cuts are estimated to cost every New Zealander around $30 a week by 2020, although the exact impact on costs like electricity and petrol will be dictated by global carbon prices.

The 10 to 20% cut will seriously disappoint the Green Party, Greenpeace and other environmental campaigners, who point to international scientific evidence that a 40% cut on 1990 emissions levels is vital by 2020 if global warming is not to go above 2 degrees Celsius this century.

However, the cost of such a huge cut - equivalent to a 64% cut in emissions from today's levels - has been deemed economically and politically unaffordable.

The target will be tabled at talks that start tonight, New Zealand time, in Bonn, in the lead-up to a global climate change summit in Copenhagen in December, where a new deal on climate change is required to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Ministers would give no breakdown of the likely contributions to meeting the eventual target, which will come from a mixture of new forest plantings that soak up carbon dioxide, actions in the New Zealand economy to reduce emissions, and the purchase of credits on the burgeoning international carbon market.

Half New Zealand's emissions come from methand and nitrous oxide, associated with the agricultural sector, which will only be eased into facing the costs of greenhouse gas emissions from 2013, and will not face full costs until 2030 on current plans.

Environment Minister Nick Smith described the 10 to 20% target as "ambitious" and told BusinessWire that he expected the greatest contribution to reduced agricultural emissions was likely to come from reduced emissions of nitrous oxide in the longer term. The Government last week announced a $10 million three year research programme into technologies to reduce NO2, a powerful greenhouse gas.

New Zealand is only committing to its target range as long as complex rules relating to such issues as how quickly carbon from a felled tree is said to enter the atmosphere and systems to recognise changes in land use that are very specific to New Zealand's emissions profile.

Failure to meet those conditions would not necessarily see New Zealand offer no cuts at all, but would require a regrouping, Change Negotiations Minister Tim Groser told a Beehive press conference where the target was unveiled.

"We will look at the totality of those conditions and make a judgement," he said, predicting that there would be no deal at Copenhagen and further negotiations into 2010 to lock down a new global deal.

The New Zealand target sits somewhat below Australia's range of 14 to 24% cuts, reflecting the higher cost of abatement for GHGs in this country, compared with Australia, Key said. The New Zealand targets compared favourably with United States targets of reining its emissions to the same as 1990 levels, a 3% cut offered by Canada, and 8% offered by Japan.

The New Zealand position is partly based on the fact that the country's emissions profile is unusual by developed world standards, with very high levels of electricity produced by renewable energy, significant dependence on forestry plantings to deal with its emissions profiles, and much higher agricultural emissions compared with industrialised countries.

Businesswire.co.nz

Comments from our readers

No comments yet