RBNZ's Wheeler cuts OCR, signals end to easing cycle

Thursday 10th November 2016

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler cut the official cash rate to a new record low to try to stoke inflation in an economy growing ahead of expectations and signalled the end of the easing cycle. The kiwi dollar gained after the statement.

Wheeler lowered the OCR to 1.75 percent, as expected, and projected the benchmark rate will stay there over the bank's forecast horizon until the end of 2019. The kiwi jumped to 73.37 US cents from 72.90 cents immediately before the release, and the trade-weighted index advanced to 79.08 from 78.59, 3 percent higher than what the RBNZ is projecting for the December quarter.

"Our current projections and assumptions indicate that policy settings, including today’s easing, will see growth strong enough to have inflation settle near the middle of the target range," Wheeler said in a statement. "Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly."

The RBNZ has been cutting interest rates to try and stoke moribund inflation, as a strong New Zealand dollar makes imported products cheaper. The currency has persistently remained higher than expectations as New Zealand's relatively upbeat economic outlook continues to make it attractive in an uncertain global environment.

Today's decision comes after the US presidential election of Donald Trump and the Republican party sweep of both houses of the legislature. The uncertainty over that outcome created volatility in financial markets, though investors pushed up stock markets in response to the vote.

Wheeler again bemoaned the strength of the currency but stopped short of indicating the Reserve Bank would intervene in foreign exchange markets.

"The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced economic growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector," he said. "A decline in the exchange rate is needed."

While the central forecast was for the OCR to remain unchanged for the next two years, the Reserve Bank indicated there were a number risks that could push rates either way, with projections showing the benchmark rate could rise towards 3 percent of fall to about 0.5 percent.

Among the risks cited was a stronger than expected New Zealand dollar that would continue to be a drag on imported inflation and drive interest rates lower. More expensive funding costs for banks, lower export prices, and a decline in inflation expectations were also cited as a risk for a reduction in rates, while higher migration, faster house price inflation and stronger consumption were all seen as potentially pushing up the OCR.

Wheeler said inflation continued to track below expectations due to the tradables sector, and while cheap petrol prices and cuts to Accident Compensation Corp levies weighed on consumer prices in the September quarter, it was still expected to increase in the December period "reflecting the policy stimulus to date, the strength of the domestic economy, and reduced drag from tradables inflation."

ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley said he expects the RBNZ will stay on hold for now, with the economy growing faster than the trend, and not in urgent need for stimulus to stoke inflation.

"But the risks to the OCR remain skewed towards another cut next year (and a fan chart of scenarios was slightly skewed down). Key risks are the strength of the NZ dollar, any further weakness in inflation expectations, and any deterioration in the global growth outlook," Tuffley said in a note. "The change of US Presidency will also be a wildcard over the longer term, with its mix of potential fiscal stimulus and potential trade protectionism."

The central bank expects the consumers price index to rise to an annual pace of 1.1 percent in the December quarter from the 0.4 percent pace in September, within the bank's target band of between 1 percent-and-3 percent. Inflation is seen reaching the 2 percent midpoint by December 2018, slightly later than what was projected in the August monetary policy statement.

Wheeler said the economy was still being supported by low interest rates, strong population growth, record tourism and building activity, though he noted high net migration was still limiting wage growth.

He again said house price inflation was "excessive" and posed risks to the nation's financial stability, and while rising prices in Auckland had moderated, the outlook was uncertain due to the lack of supply in the country's biggest city.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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