Job ads indicate unemployment rise

By Phil Boeyen, ShareChat Business News Editor

Wednesday 16th January 2002

Job ads in newspapers firmed slightly in December compared with the previous month but are still down on last year's levels, prompting the ANZ to forecast a rise in New Zealand's unemployment rate.

The number of ads counted in the major newspapers throughout New Zealand, as measured by the ANZ Job Ads series, rose by 0.7% in December compared with November but was 6.6% lower than the same time a year ago.

This slight recovery in month-on-month figures follows four consecutive monthly decreases.

ANZ says Christchurch job ads, which were the main driver of the large fall in November, partially retraced their recent declines, rising 3.3% in December but this was partly offset by a 0.6% drop in Auckland and a 3.9% fall in Wellington.

Job ad levels in the three main centres are now 8.5% lower than a year ago.

The bank says the December quarter proved a tumultuous one for job advertisement activity. Although easing had already begun it was accelerated in October and November as business confidence plunged in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the United States.

Overall seasonally adjusted job advertising in the December quarter was 10% lower than in the September quarter.

ANZ chief economist, David Drage, says that while this is a large fall in job ads, with negative implications for the December quarter employment data, it must be considered in a broader context, including more favourable migration trends.

"While the increase in the number of available workers is small compared to the overall size of the labour market, this trend should be starting to make it easier for employers to find suitable staff.

"Consequently, part of the decrease in job ads may be stemming from a decline in the need to re-advertise a position in order to attract an appropriate applicant. Additionally, we generally expect there to be some lag before trends seen in job ad behaviour have an affect on the labour market."

However Mr Drage says the bank still expects overall employment will have contracted in the December quarter and it is forecasting a rise in the next unemployment figures, due to be released on Februrary 8.

"That said, the recovery in business confidence and job ads during the month of December, if sustained, suggests the labour market could regain a firmer footing in 2002."

The ANZ Internet job ads series was down for the third consecutive month, falling 10.3% to be 17.9% lower than in December last year.

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