NIWA says 'don't blame us'

By Phil Boeyen, ShareChat Business News Editor

Friday 27th July 2001

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research has hit back at a claim that it should bear the blame for the current electricity crisis.

Earlier in the week Act MP, Gerry Eckhoff, said NIWA had supplied "grossly inaccurate" forecasts for the current winter.

However NIWA boss, Paul Hargreaves, says the MP's claims are both foolish and wildly inaccurate.

"NIWA's public forecasts for river flows during winter are on track. Winter flows to date into the Waitaki lakes have been average to below average, as NIWA predicted.

"NIWA said that winter temperatures over most of the country were likely to be above average, but with cold periods at times. What actually happened was that June was warmer than average over much of the South Island and lower North Island, but July has been cold."

Mr Hargreaves says river flows into the Waitaki lakes, combined with the low lake levels at the beginning of winter, mean that storage in the country's two main hydro lakes, Pukaki and Tekapo, is currently 42% and 37% of capacity.

"Although these levels are low, they are still well above the levels during the 1992 electricity crisis, when the equivalent levels on 25 July 1992 were 11% and 14%."

NIWA says it provides advice to commercial clients which recognises that there are uncertainties in climate predictions.

"For example, our winter predictions for the area which feeds the main South Island hydro catchments were that there was a 20% chance of above average rainfall, a 50% chance of average rainfall, and a 30% chance of below average rainfall," says Mr Hargreaves.

"This advice helps managers of climate-sensitive activities realistically assess risks of unusual conditions occurring."

Natural Gas Corporation (NZSE: NCH) this week announced it was getting out of electricity retailing entirely, having sold its South Island customers to Meridian and North Island customers to Genesis.

That news saw the company's stock jump for the first time since early June, when it first warned it was under pressure from high wholesale power prices.

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