Surfing surfeit

Wednesday 1st May 2002

More of us are using the internet, but we aren't using the internet more

Our love affair with the internet continues - kind of. Over the year to January 2002, New Zealand's "active internet universe" expanded by just under 200,000 people, to 1.07 million. That's according to Nielsen//NetRatings, which noted halfway through last year that we had cracked the six million-hour barrier, in terms of total internet use in a month. It seems, however, that those of us using the internet aren't surfing any more than we did last year. Whatever measure you use - time spent a month, number of pages viewed, or number of sessions a month - our internet habits are static.

Still, it seems that internet use is reaching the areas that technology doesn't always reach. Observers note that PC use is expanding into lower socioeconomic groups, and we all know the phenomenon of the retired person keeping track of their portfolio and the antics of their grandchildren through the net. That movement has been aided and abetted by low-cost internet access and cheap high-street deals on PCs.

Where are we in the world?

As you would expect, the internet world is a pretty big place. Nielsen//NetRatings estimates the active internet universe at about 255 million people. According to its global internet index, the average user spent nine hours and 20 minutes on the net in December. That's considerably higher than the figure for Kiwi users, but we're still batting well in the middle of the lineup. The South Koreans are mad-keen surfers, both in terms of frequency of use and duration of sessions (averaging 41 minutes a session, compared with New Zealand's 25 minutes). The Germans, on the other hand, visit the most unique sites in a month (55, versus our 32). In each case, there are a number of factors - including PC penetration, mobile phone use and the cost of telecommunications - that can partially explain the trends in each market.

Trying to make sense of the latest statistics on internet use is challenging, to say the least. Some companies monitoring the web have already gone out of business. Categories often change, as do methodologies. Even within ACNielsen, different agencies on either side of the Tasman keep watch over the net (Netwatch over here). Interpreting trends is a risky business. With that in mind, here we go:

The times are not changing. Oddly, despite the major expansion in New Zealand's net universe in the year to January, the average time users spent online barely budged. The average user engaged in 14 net sessions a month, visited about 32 domains and averaged 30 page views per surfing session. The figures were remarkably consistent with a year earlier. Either those joining the web had average needs and wants, or a range of influences combined to neutralise each other. The latter is more likely.

We know what we want. Along with Australians, New Zealanders are high up in the "stickiness" department, meaning we spend longer on each page. Looking at the NetRatings figures, there are signs that as the market has matured, users have become more focused on what they can get out of the web. Entertainment is still a major drawcard (just ask your average High Court judge), as is news and information. But the real growth seems to be elsewhere. People are spending significant time on the net looking for jobs, examining travel options and their finances. These are areas where the financial and convenience factors are there for both consumers and business. According to Netwatch, internet banking is a definite triumph. For the banks, this can mean considerable cost savings in their overheads, plus better targeted marketing strategies.

But we're not spending. Again according to Netwatch, it seems we're still reluctant to buy online. Figures from last year showed the percentage of users buying online is still under 20%. The growth in the number of businesses using the net also seems to be slowing. The latest figures don't point to the internet as a financial goldmine.

Betting on mobile. Many industry observers believe the next critical phase of internet growth will come from mobile applications. This is also where the money will be. Unlike parsimonious PC users, mobile phone users are used to paying for services. Technology research company International Data Corporation (IDC) is exceedingly bullish. In a report last year it forecast that internet user numbers would jump from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.3 million in 2005. "The fundamental driver across the board is low-cost access devices, improving broadband access charges, and the evolution of wireless and cellular technologies", it said. For low-cost devices, read mobile phones. Present mobile internet use represents less than 1% of users. Still, given the unfulfilled hype surrounding 3G, the sceptics will need some convincing about the coming mobile revolution.

This time it will be different. The august journal The Economist believes this time the wireless operators will get it right, despite significant technical issues yet to be resolved. Think "mobile data services" rather than "mobile internet", it urges. "One way or another, phones will soon become the predominant means of access to the internet." These services are ready to roll in New Zealand and elsewhere on upgraded 2G platforms.

Andrew Stokes
arstokes@xtra.co.nz

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