Forum Archive Index - May 2004

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Robin,
 
>
>Thanks MacDunk -- I'm taking a fresh look at POT. The union issues 
at
>LPC appear to be further entrenched that I thought previously. What 
do
>Snoopy and Boop-de-boop think about LPC compared with POT or 
POA? Lots
>of trees *and* farms in the central NI ...
> 

After what happened last year, I think Marilyn is more the ports expert 
than I am!     Very disappointing that LPC fell out of the elite 'focus 
investment group' set of companies.    The union problems, two years 
in a row now, and lack of provision for replacement of basic 
infrastructure came as a shock.    I think that long term around 5c per 
share of value has been removed from this share by all the troubles.

However, in defence of LPC the yield is still good at today's prices (just 
above $1.60).  ROE remains good (27% last year, adjusted for one 
offs) and there isn't any other port that serves the largest city in the 
South Island.   Contrast that with Auckland where POT seems hellbent 
on getting into the territory of POA.   

But long term LPC has a history of paying out all of its profits in 
dividends.   That means long term you can expect the share price track 
up with inflation but little else.    It's more of an income share than a 
growth share. 

Macdunk has made his case for POT, and I'm not going to argue with 
him.

POA has certainly had a great run.  On a recent visit to Auckland I was 
interested to see that the public boat Marina that they recently sold 
amounted from what I could see to be about half their land!     Whether 
that will compromise their ability to grow in the future I wouldn't know.    
If she's listening I'll leave Marilyn to tell you if POA is worth getting into 
at this late stage.

For myself, I'm sticking with LPC.    In fact they're the only shares I've 
bought this year.   With a share like LPC though, they must be bought 
at the right price for you to get a decent return out of them.

SNOOPY

discl: hold LPC

--
Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
----------------------------------
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."


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