Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

Well all:
When I first stared trading the Forex I started with the Euro/Usd then went
onto the Usd/Jpy. Now being a Gold Options Trader it was a simple formula.
The Usd went Up and Gold went Down and vise versa. So! on a dollar rally I
would buy Gold Puts  and Buy the Usd/Jpy. When the dollar went down I would
buy Gold Calls and sell down the Usd/Jpy. Silver usually followed Gold.
    However ever since the Euro reached parity the volatiltiy in the Usd/Jpy
has dwindled and the Volatility in the Euro/Usd has increased. I now believe
that we are at the beginning of a new cycle. If you watch Gold/Usd on a 60
minute chart you will see that it has increased in volatility enormously.
That coupled with the fact that nearly all muslim countries have converted
their Dinars into gold.
    So what is happening?
Well the volatity that once was the realm of the UsDollar has now
transferred to the Euro. Gold pegged to the Us Dollar is now going its own
way. Gold is behaving like a cross currency, The Euro is now more heavily
traded than the Us dollar and the Usd Dollar is sinking into a quagmire of
its own cash.
You see back in the old days when the Dollar ruled the Us Mint printed
Billions of Dollars just for use outside the Us of A.
    Now that the Euro is staking its claim and perhaps its rightful place as
THE Currency and Now that Gold is also contesting for the Crown we are
experiencing the very effect that brought down the Roman Empire. Super
Inflation.
As these Billions of dollars no longer get used overseas thay will find
their way back home. i.e. The dollar will become almost worthless. The next
big thing along the Currency line is what will happen when the Yuan decides
to go it alone, well immediatly the currencies of South East Asia, Indo
China, Thailand, and Perhaps, Malasia will peg their currencies to it. This
could very well spell the end of the dollar dominence and the Power of the
USA.
Enter the Dragon! We are all in the unique situation of witnessing the death
throes of one Super Power strangling in the umbilical cord on the new Super
Power.
So my advice is do not be too USD orientated, because changes are a coming.

Woody



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