Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Allan Potts" <ajp7079@excite.com>]

Robin,-----------

I'm expecting a much lower U.S. dollar against all currencies except maybe the 
Mexican Peso and third world countries.  Actually, I expect this to continue 
even after the election, no matter who wins the 
election.---------------------------

Disc.------  Long gold, NZ $, Aussie $ (both shares and currencies) and a 
basket of commodies.---------  Thinking to going  on Sterling and 
Yen.-----------------Allan.




 --- On Sat 02/14, robin benson < rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk > wrote:
From: robin benson [mailto: rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk]
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 2004 21:33:50 +0000
Subject: Re: [sharechat] U.S. Property

Hi Allan<br><br>Regarding the level of the dollar against a basket of 
currencies (yen, <br>NZ$, A$, euro, sterling, etc.), then, are you expecting a 
rise or <br>decline in the dollar? This surely will have an impact on any 
A$/NZ$ <br>investments you hold.<br><br>Personally, I expect the dollar has 
still to find it's lowest point, <br>which I expect will be around your 
presidential election. I am assuming <br>a Bush defeat, but as I'm sure you'll 
agree, this is by no means clear.<br><br>Regards<br><br>Robin<br><br>On 14 Feb 
2004, at 19:37, Allan Potts wrote:<br><br>> Unfortunately, the word "trend" 
should have been replaced with <br>> "avalanche" or alternatively "tidal 
wave".<br>><br>> Sadly, it is my forecast that within the next 18 months the 
rate of <br>> foreclosures in the U.S. will reach those ominous 
descriptions.<br>><br>> It doesn't take a degree in economics from Harvard to 
figure this out. <br>>  Sadly, too many Americans are drowning in debt, yet 
continue to <br>> borrow on the equity in their residences, run up credit card 
debt and <br>> buy new cars.  When interest rates start to rise, and they will, 
as we <br>> say here -- "Katy bar the door".<br>><br>> It will take about four 
to five months after the second rate hike to <br>> put a large percentage of 
the population in the bankruptcy courts.  <br>> Many people now have 0% 
interest rates on their maxed out credit <br>> cards.  When the "free ride" 
period is over the rates go to 7.5% to <br>> the most credit worthy people (who 
normally do not max out their <br>> credit cards anyway) to more like 12.99% up 
to 22 to 23% for the least <br>> credit worthy that still can get credit cards. 
 Add to these rates 1 <br>> to 3% and variable mortgage rates increasing at the 
same time and you <br>> can see what is going to happen.<br>><br>> To make 
matters worse, the overinflated price of real property will be <br>> plummeting 
and many many people will find themselves with a mortgage <br>> far greater 
than the value of their property.  As Yogi would say "Deja <br>> vu all over 
again".<br>><br>> On that cheerful note, I'll bid all -- a good balance of the 
weekend.<br><br><br>----------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>To
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