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Thank you for helping me sleep better.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 29, 2004 7:46
PM
Subject: RE: [sharechat] Marshall Law in
the USA?
Lots to agree and disagree with here, so I'll try to be quick
and to the
point...
> I think we'd all be fools to assume that
the world is heading
> into a happier and stable place.
To some
extent yes, things have changed. But at the same time, awareness of
the
problems has increased, and with increased awareness, comes
increased
attention. This attention will counter some of the downward
spiral you
suggest.
> Within this decade we will all witness
further major terrorist
> atrocities, including such acts on the USA
mainland.
So what? We will also see ten or a hundred times the number
of people die
because of natural disasters. These were occuring before
terrorism, and will
keep occuring after terrorism as well. Not to mention
the Americians will
still lose more people per year to car crashes OR
smoking related deaths
than they will terrorist attacks.
However,
the more it happens, the more resilient people become, and the
more
prepared they will be the next time. Both sides will evolve. It's
like
suicide bombers in Israel. Did you know that only around 5-10%
are
successful? On average, they are stopping around 10-15 suicide bombers
for
every one that is 'successful'. This is because the defense is evolving
at
the same time.
I was in DC during some of the sniper attacks.
Didn't stop me or a lot of
others going to work, going out for dinner, and
generally going about our
lives. Even if there are tough times, people will
still go about their
lives.
> The fact that the USA economy is
clearly in a mess, and is
> technically bankrupt, will ultimately lead
to a major fall in
> the US dollar and corresponding rise in the price
of gold.
Hard to disagree here, for everything that goes up, it has to
come down. So
it will go for the US. It can't remain the number one
economic power
forever. There is certainly a log of debt that does need to
be dealt with at
all levels, personal right up to the Federal
level.
> When this event occurs it's unlikely to lead to Marshall
Law
> being imposed on the streets of the USA.
> However, once
terrorism takes on a significant new foothold
> in the USA (not if, but
when) the possibility of imposing
> Marshall Law is very
real.
You can't jump in and directly link it to Habius Corpus though (I
think that
is what it is called, its been a while). The military will not
just turn up
on the streets of the US. For starters the 50 states control
their National
Guard, not the Federal Govt. The President only controls the
National Guard
for the District of Columbia. The military is not keen to
get involved in
maintaining the peace in the continental US. I know, when I
was in DC a
couple of years ago I went to a planning meeting involving the
miltary just
before the IMF World Bank meeting where the miltary
involvement if the riots
scaled up were discussed. Quite a bit would have
to happen to result in the
miltary ASSISTING law enforcement officers on
the streets. And generally,
military personnel will be assigned as
assistance to law enforcement
officers - they won't be a law unto
themselves.
Not to forget the negative psychological impact of having
the miltary on the
street. They will want to get them off the street as
soon as possible.
> Global terrorism will also push up the price of
gold. Numerous
> other factors (Chinese buying for example) will also
push up
> the price of gold. A significant increase in the price of
gold
> and even more significant increases in the value of resource
stocks
Will everyone end up in gold though? It can't continue growing.
Look at
shares and proerty, they all go up, and they all come down again.
Even if
gold keeps increasing, soon it will reach a level when other
alternative
investments with be suitable for maintaining ones wealth. Won't
people look
at silver, platinum and others? Or are they already doing that?
I'm not much
into commodities, so I am out of my depth here.
>
and the possibility of not too many safe places to travel to
> spend
your wealth. However, Australia and New Zealand are more
> likely to
remain some of the better places regardless.
I'd like to see that
justified! If we remain one of the better places, then
that will make us
more attractive to Americans, ergo, we will attract more
potential
terrorism - especially if our border security is weaker than the
US's. So
don't fall for complacency and assume we are safe from terrorism.
We are
not. We have some safety because of our isolation, but that is it.
Now,
I still have some USD, and I've got a couple of US tech stocks, but I
am
unsure about further investment there. There is another reason the
increase
in security in the US will have a bad impact on their economy, and
it has
already started. It is this.
It is getting harder and harder to get
into the US. This is stopping people
going there, and they are going to
other destinations. Immediate impact -
less tourists, so what little
impact. Less immediate impact - bright people
are not going to the US to
study, and create new business ventures etc. It
is becoming too hard to get
in, and you risk all sorts of invasive
questioning. People are putting it
in the too hard basket. I haven't got the
links with me, but I read in the
past few days, that immigrants studying
Computer Science in US increased
around 30% 2000-2002. Last year that
dropped around 15%. Their immigration
policies are starting to bite. I think
this has the potential to bite them
a lot harder than they currently
realise, their economy is more reliant on
immigrants than they understand.
Constrict the suppy of immigrants, and
there are dark times ahead.
Opps, bit longer than I would have
liked...
Overall, I don't think things are that bad. War, security, and
terrorism are
having an impact, but I don't think it will be as bad as you
suggest. They
certainly have bigger economic issues to deal
with.
Me, I've been meaning to focus on Australian and NZ stocks when I
have the
time. And when I've got that done, I'm going to play golf, and go
hiking :)
Life's too short to worry too much about the bad things that may
happen.
Cheers
Gav
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