Forum Archive Index - January 2004

[Gavin Treadgold <gav@rediguana.co.nz>]

Lots to agree and disagree with here, so I'll try to be quick and to the
point...

> I think we'd all be fools to assume that the world is heading
> into a happier and stable place.

To some extent yes, things have changed. But at the same time, awareness of
the problems has increased, and with increased awareness, comes increased
attention. This attention will counter some of the downward spiral you
suggest.

> Within this decade we will all witness further major terrorist
> atrocities, including such acts on the USA mainland.

So what? We will also see ten or a hundred times the number of people die
because of natural disasters. These were occuring before terrorism, and will
keep occuring after terrorism as well. Not to mention the Americians will
still lose more people per year to car crashes OR smoking related deaths
than they will terrorist attacks.

However, the more it happens, the more resilient people become, and the more
prepared they will be the next time. Both sides will evolve. It's like
suicide bombers in Israel. Did you know that only around 5-10% are
successful? On average, they are stopping around 10-15 suicide bombers for
every one that is 'successful'. This is because the defense is evolving at
the same time.

I was in DC during some of the sniper attacks. Didn't stop me or a lot of
others going to work, going out for dinner, and generally going about our
lives. Even if there are tough times, people will still go about their
lives.

> The fact that the USA economy is clearly in a mess, and is
> technically bankrupt, will ultimately lead to a major fall in
> the US dollar and corresponding rise in the price of gold.

Hard to disagree here, for everything that goes up, it has to come down. So
it will go for the US. It can't remain the number one economic power
forever. There is certainly a log of debt that does need to be dealt with at
all levels, personal right up to the Federal level.

> When this event occurs it's unlikely to lead to Marshall Law
> being imposed on the streets of the USA.
> However, once terrorism takes on a significant new foothold
> in the USA (not if, but when) the possibility of imposing
> Marshall Law is very real.

You can't jump in and directly link it to Habius Corpus though (I think that
is what it is called, its been a while). The military will not just turn up
on the streets of the US. For starters the 50 states control their National
Guard, not the Federal Govt. The President only controls the National Guard
for the District of Columbia. The military is not keen to get involved in
maintaining the peace in the continental US. I know, when I was in DC a
couple of years ago I went to a planning meeting involving the miltary just
before the IMF World Bank meeting where the miltary involvement if the riots
scaled up were discussed. Quite a bit would have to happen to result in the
miltary ASSISTING law enforcement officers on the streets. And generally,
military personnel will be assigned as assistance to law enforcement
officers - they won't be a law unto themselves.

Not to forget the negative psychological impact of having the miltary on the
street. They will want to get them off the street as soon as possible.

> Global terrorism will also push up the price of gold. Numerous
> other factors (Chinese buying for example) will also push up
> the price of gold. A significant increase in the price of gold
> and even more significant increases in the value of resource stocks

Will everyone end up in gold though? It can't continue growing. Look at
shares and proerty, they all go up, and they all come down again. Even if
gold keeps increasing, soon it will reach a level when other alternative
investments with be suitable for maintaining ones wealth. Won't people look
at silver, platinum and others? Or are they already doing that? I'm not much
into commodities, so I am out of my depth here.

> and the possibility of not too many safe places to travel to
> spend your wealth. However, Australia and New Zealand are more
> likely to remain some of the better places regardless.

I'd like to see that justified! If we remain one of the better places, then
that will make us more attractive to Americans, ergo, we will attract more
potential terrorism - especially if our border security is weaker than the
US's. So don't fall for complacency and assume we are safe from terrorism.
We are not. We have some safety because of our isolation, but that is it.

Now, I still have some USD, and I've got a couple of US tech stocks, but I
am unsure about further investment there. There is another reason the
increase in security in the US will have a bad impact on their economy, and
it has already started. It is this.

It is getting harder and harder to get into the US. This is stopping people
going there, and they are going to other destinations. Immediate impact -
less tourists, so what little impact. Less immediate impact - bright people
are not going to the US to study, and create new business ventures etc. It
is becoming too hard to get in, and you risk all sorts of invasive
questioning. People are putting it in the too hard basket. I haven't got the
links with me, but I read in the past few days, that immigrants studying
Computer Science in US increased around 30% 2000-2002. Last year that
dropped around 15%. Their immigration policies are starting to bite. I think
this has the potential to bite them a lot harder than they currently
realise, their economy is more reliant on immigrants than they understand.
Constrict the suppy of immigrants, and there are dark times ahead.

Opps, bit longer than I would have liked...

Overall, I don't think things are that bad. War, security, and terrorism are
having an impact, but I don't think it will be as bad as you suggest. They
certainly have bigger economic issues to deal with.

Me, I've been meaning to focus on Australian and NZ stocks when I have the
time. And when I've got that done, I'm going to play golf, and go hiking :)
Life's too short to worry too much about the bad things that may happen.

Cheers Gav



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