Forum Archive Index - January 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

You are a student of elliott waves I see.   You seem to use many indicators,
I found too many contradicting.
I am a student of KISS.  I use Gann squares to calculate S/R, MACD as a
trigger and Trident as entry and target points.
I have programmed SuperCharts to scan over 500 stocks and several
commodities for these signals.
Then for the other 23 hours I follow other pursuits.

Woody
----- Original Message -----
From: "Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, January 26, 2004 8:54 PM
Subject: [sharechat] POG TA


> Price of Gold (POG), in USD.
>
> Still keying off the USD, although increasingly the Euro too, the POG
> remains in a corrective phase from 6/1/04 $428 high. This correction has
> retested and failed at the high, eased quickly to 417 then gapped down to
> close at 408 on 15/1, followed the day after by a first test on the 50MA
> around 405. Last week, the POG range traded between 413 and 408, but,
today
> (Aus/Asia) on renewed USD strength, tested and broke the 50MA moving to
> 404.50 - currently about 406. This could be either wave 5 of A down, or
more
> likely wave 3 of A down. Some might consider the leading US mining stocks
as
> a lead indicator, esp the mid/large cap NA's in the HUI, for example BGO,
&
> NEM, both of which are well advanced in their correction (anticipated gold
> weakness).
>
> Price action since the 13/1/04 is in a well formed PDT (power down trend).
> Key indicators show weakness -%R in oversold, STO perked up, but has
crossed
> over again to ovesold, MACD oversold and recrossing MTM/CCI weakening.
> Volume has risen but in the sell side.
>
> Projections:
>
> Plan A - assuming USD strength continues (my TA on USDX says 89-94 range
is
> target resistance trendline - currently 86.5), then, expect to see the POG
> 100MA at $395 and that'll be enough to spook the weak hands for a retest
of
> the all important S2 line at 378, and below that the 200MA about 373 ...
> always a strong. Response: Buy progressively into weakness, accelerating
> accumulation as each support fails and if a turn occurs, convert all dry
> powder for the ride back up.
>
> Plan B - assuming USD weakens, unlikely imo, but anything can happen and
> often does. Look for key resistance at 413 and gap filler at 417. I hate
> buying strength, but if it pops through 425, pile in but keep a finger on
> the sell trigger. If 428 falls, hang on for the ride. I am using a
> 5SMA/14EMA crossover to confirm the trend change.
>
> Finally, "bear" in mind the 'Prechter Zone'. Widely maligned the perennial
> bears insist the failure at 428 was a 8 year top -wave 5 or (5) of
> [C]circled, which in english is OUCH! The Prechter zone for the current
move
> is $50-$75 decline to the range 377-353 (ergo the 200MA!). Alternatively,
> consider the Sinclair zone ... somewhere near the moon, but even Jim is
> suggesting a decent correction if we can't break out of the trading range
to
> the upside This Week..
>
> JMO,
> BAA
>
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