Forum Archive Index - October 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Morgy,

> 
>A classic re your posts recently, call it what you want , your
>investment strategy was exposed for the "hobby" that it is. As
>Phaedrus says, he has done this for years with you, exposing your
>blatant weaknesses, based on dogma, you really would have fitted in
>well with the communists, they don't like making money either.
>

Well well well.  Some interesting thoughts here.

I'll take your 'investment strategy as hobby' comment as a compliment.  
There is certainly no need to be hunched over a computer screen all 
day when you invest as I do.     It was never my dream to have 
'investing' completely take over my life.    I realize some traders thrive 
on intense hour by hour minute by minute involvement, and good luck 
to them, but this is not for me.    Still, everyone to their own.

As for being based on 'dogma' well, yeah.     I try to remain faithful to 
the general principles espoused by Buffett.

As to 'weakness' in my investment strategy I'm not sure what you 
mean.    Sure I've made some bad calls over the last three years, but I 
have recovered from them.    Making bad calls is actually part of 
investing.   If you can't stand to ever get something wrong, then put 
your money in the bank.   The secret to successful investing is to make 
sure your good calls more than outweigh the bad ones.

Having Air New Zealand in my income share portfolio was probably the 
worst call I made.    But I transferred that money into Scott Technology 
and I have more than recovered the losses.    Even the worst 
performing share in my income portfolio RBD, I am cash flow positive 
on.   Overall my income portfolio is up some 60% over the last two and 
three quarter years.   Hardly a disaster.

>
>Your credibility in the last 3 years has dropped to the levels of your
>posts re RBD recently, even people who profess to minimal financial
>literacy are having the belief to tell you, you are wrong !. Common
>sense dictates so.
>

Unlike most things in life, successful investing is not about popularity.  
The only guarantee is that if *everyone* thinks it is a good idea the 
chances are that particular investment is well overpriced already.  Part 
of being a contrarian investor is putting up with other people telling you 
all day and every day that you are wrong.   Not everyone has the 
temprement that can stand  this.    I'm interested in specific criticisim's 
of RBD (for example), and will respond (and have responded) if people 
bring them up.   But generally the more people who disagree with me 
on this forum, the more confident I become in my own strategy.

> 
>I spent considerable time going through your strategy , almost point
>by point, your only reply was that Phaedrus had said the same thing 
or
>I think to paraphrase your words, had beat you up about that x many
>times ago.
>

You are back to RBD again aren't you?    I can assure you that RBD is 
an important, but only a small part of my strategy.   RBD has taught me 
to be very careful about interpreting the PR put out by management.  
That is a valuable lesson.   Overall, and without the benefit of 
hindsight, I have not regrets at all about being an RBD shareholder.  It 
has been a valuable experience.

> 
>The question I ask you in all sincerity is, are you stupid ! , have
>you learnt nothing in all this time.
> 

Yes.  I have learned that RBD is a far better buy at $1.25 than $1.75.   
And I have acted on what I have learned.

>
>People come on to this board and pass you by, once your limited
>skills are learnt. There are stock screens on every financial web site
>that can pass on the info you have without falling in love
>with the stock like you do and losing all that money.
>

If you think my investment strategy can be replicated using simple 
stock screens you haven't been paying attention.    Repeating your 
false mantra about 'losing all that money' doesn't increase the 
credibility of your position.

Even Phaedrus has admitted that taken on a case by case basis only 
around 60% of his trades give a positive return.    So do you criticize 
him for 'losing all that money' on his other trades?   No, because it is 
the overall result that counts, not what happens on each individual 
transaction.

>
>but more importantly disagreement,
>questioning, ideas, shifts of thinking, this makes a healthy site.
> 

Ah., so actually you do enjoy Snoopy disagreeing with you after all ;-)

>
> I sign off here forever, thank you all for my education.
>

It will be all our loss Morgy.     Even I have enjoyed our pithy 
exchanges.    I hope you will change your mind about going.    Having 
another Australian correspondent would be good for this site.   All the 
best for the future in Oz for you and your kids.

SNOOPY

--
Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
----------------------------------
"Dogs have big tongues, so you can bet they don't 
bite them by accident"


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