Forum Archive Index - October 2003

["Cristine Kerr" <criskerr@optusnet.com.au>]

Hi Morgy,

 

Thanks for the chart. Had to go back to IPG to refresh my memory but briefly ...

 

Investa Property Group (IPG)

Property Trust

 

Bought parcel 28/8/03 @ $1.95

Topped up parcel 16/9/03 @ $1.94

 

Why? Initially picked up on radar from ASX releases:

• Noticed more than one big player getting in (people in the game who I have good reason to suspect know a lot more than I do!!!)
• Noticed acquisition of POF (Principle Office Fund), IPG now have 100% control of POF - synergies between IPG and POF businesses - POF sizeable in its own right, paid 11cent non-franked in quarterly  dividends during the last financial year - IPG should finalize acquisition by end 2003 (Wish I'd been in POF before IPG started gobbling shares which catapulted POF shares from $1.37 to $1.70 almost overnight.)

1) Price to earnings: IPG paid 15.6 cents last financial year in quarterly dividends - indicative of very healthy cash position and commitment to shareholder return (including their enhancement to franking)

2) IPG (assets $4.3bn) own, develop and manage ($5bn under management) primarily commercial property. Buoyant property market has resulted in increased asset values and increased commercial rents (which won't go down if property values go through an adjustment), higher rents = higher management fees

3) Present: Low vacancy, average lease 4.3 years

4) 4/9/03 Directors bought in. ASX announcement re Change of Directors Interest x 4 - all 4 were acquisitions including on-market purchases and distribution reinvestment (or in other words, they were prepared pay present market price with their own money to gain additional shares - not an option in sight). Good indicator of Director confidence in the company.

5) Most recent quarterly dividend, 4.05 cents (franked) and payable later this month which could spur some share price momentum as happened with May and June dividends (hence my interest in chart)

 

Future

• positive - moving into growth phase which should increase demand for commercial office space
• negative - risk exists in oversupply of commercial properties (loss of tenants or reduction in rents to remain competitive), also risk if management rights are lost

For me. this stock represents excellent growth potential with consistent dividend returns (based on information available at this point in time). I've bought in for the longer term and will manage risk factors by tracking news items, eg; looking for signals of commercial property oversupply.

 

Regards,

Cris

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Morgy

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Saturday, October 04, 2003 3:29 PM

Subject: [sharechat] Emailing: IPGASX

Cristine

 

Finally worked out how to get a chart posted from my own software. As you can see it is in a trading range on this weekly chart. A lot will depend on what happens when the 2 groups of moving averages meet, this means that there is agreed value on price, it wont last long and they will bounce off each other or cross  which will give you a chance if it crosses to the long side to make some money , if it drops below the support level I have identified, well I would bail out, particularly if it goes through 1.89, which is the fib retrace line, ehich you will note it has touched and pulled back from, possibly a good sign that it may stay within the trading range. Why do you think it was such a good buy from a FA point of view  ?

 

 

Hope this helps

 

Regards

 

Morgy

 

 

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