Forum Archive Index - September 2003

["Morgy 40" <morgy40@hotmail.com>]

Gerry

Yes I agree, nearly half the share price is gone , but heh you still get 12% 
, some consolation for those investors, If you invested 50 k its now worth 
about 25k with a 6k consolation prize for throwing your money away. No 
wonder it took buffett years to make his first million, he worked it out 
after that, you need to control the board stupid.

If you bought 50k worth of shares 2 years ago this month, your buy in price 
would have been around
$1.55, this is midway through the last longterm uptrend, a rough total of  
32,258 shares. If you sold out at the trend break which I am doing by 
eyeball because I dont hold NZX data on my system, I figure its around $2.05 
(roughly late april / early may  02) then the return is $66,128.90 or 33%, 
if you then decided that you wanted to invest the sum in the bank for the 
next 17 months you would have recieved a minimum of $5000.00 giving you the 
sum of 71,128.90. If you had bought and held, well then you would now have 
(at todays share price) $40,322.50 capital 20 % eroded,  plus of course the 
wonderful dividend of 12%. I will let snoopy add those divies in because I 
dont know when they were paid out, of course they are only paid out on the 
share price at that point. My best scenario for dividend investment and 
available capital  is approximately $55,000.00, meaning that if you left 
your money safely in the bank for half the investment period and caught only 
half an uptrend as most people would if they were part time investors, say 
reading the papers and perhaps a couple of investment monthlies you would be 
15 k better off and not have the risk associated with having your money in 
the market for such a long period of time.

As Phaedrus as mentioned time and time again a conservative investor using a 
simple lonterm moving average checking a chart weekly will be in the market 
long enough to add capital gain while saving themselves from financial ruin 
and probably getting most of those divies that you are so fond of.

I have gone into bigcharts.com and pulled this up and added the 50 week 
moving average and emailed it to sharechat, I hope it comes through as it is 
a classic case of a good stock with good fundamentals (at the time) being 
managed using basic TA.

Duncan, I will add a note here for you. The sector investment that you are 
keen on, I believe is a good solid methodolgy for investment on the terms 
and conditions that you are saying you want to invest on, I dont know how to 
get access to sector info for the NZ market, for the ASX, I get it 
downloaded everynight so someone else may be able to help you with the NZ  
source , but when you get it, if you then go to bigcharts.com  key in the 
share codes, bring up a weely chart of each share that is in the sector you 
are looking at and choose the one who's chart is moving into an uptrend and 
you will at least be 50% ahead of the game. Add a 30 or 50 week trendline 
(by clicking a key) and save it to your perosnal folder and you now have a 
interactive hybrid TA / FA investment startegy. But please learn the key to 
share investment and its not about entry price (unless you are a day trader) 
its about protecting capital invested firstly and profits secondly, sell 
when the price crosses below the trendline and you will make money year in 
year out. A practical example is WRI that snoopy is keen on, if you like 
what he is saying then follow the method I have detailed above and you would 
ahve had a good 3 years with WRI, I have also sent this chart through I hope 
it also makes it.

Regards

Morgy


>From: "G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: "sharechat.co.nz" <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] RBD Outlook for FY2004
>Date: Wed, 24 Sep 2003 20:52:08 +1200
>
>I tend to be a growth investor.
>
>A yield to me can only be one part of a whole.
>
>Gerry

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