Hi all happy sharechatters,   .... oh alright..... grumpy chatters too  .
Dorchester Pacific shareholders got bonus issue warrants (ex19th
Sept) 1:4 DPCWA and 1:4 DPCWB.
On the other channel some
writers consensus were, that once the warrants were issued the head
share DPC would fall back in price. This has not happened ,as yet. The
demand for scarce stock I suspect is keeping the price up.
I was particularly interested in the price
paid for DPCWA 35cents and DPCWB at 40cents, albeit at bugger all
volume. I assume there are no warrants trading on the market
as the buy bid is 36c and sell bid is 35c, this pricing is
illogical hence the assumption.
If you do the sums many other things on the surface,seem at
first, beyond belief. DPC last traded today @ $2.03 (
ex), for mathematical purposes say $2 (ex warrants).
By Sept 2006 there will be another 10 million ( 5m Sept 2005 + 5m
Sept 2006) to add to the 20million shares on issue, so effectively
with both warrants all successfully converted @ $1.70, in theory at
present day price the DPC share is worth $2.55 (if the warrants are
worth zero).
However the market is seeing this differently at present with
the warrants worth around say 35c.......35c + $1.70 = $2.05 is
what (an) investor (s) is seeing at present. If this becomes
reality, this values DPC at present day price at $3.07.
So if any investor buys these warrants for say 35c now. The
present day price (before dilution) has to be $3.07 + interest earned if
money in the bank say 4% 1.4c x 2 years(or 3) = $3.10. This is the
price DPC ( undiluted of 2005 Warrants) has to be in Sept 2006
for that investor to break even.
The burning question is ...is DPC going to be worth that amount
considering that the market only valued the stock at a $1 last year.
Answer ...don't know.
The facts .......DPC being a small stock usually gets forgotten,
hence $1 around 2001-2002 when it should had been $1.60 at least.
At present It has lost its forgotten status.The recent price surge
from $1.40 - $2.18 and back to $2.03 is demand driven. What factor (or
factors) is causing the demand?
Factor 1 ...Investors waking up to a hugely undervalued stock
in short supply.
Factor 2....Bonus issue of the warrants.
Factor 3....Selling its pet poodle, Sterling Portfolio
Management Ltd to Spices (a wholly owned subsidiary of
AXA).
I have a feeling Factor 3 is not a key driver in this momentum,
BUT, it will have the biggest impact fundamentally as Sterling sucked
about $2M/annum. I will therefore estimated that the 1/2 year result for
DPC expected to be released in mid Nov 2003 will be $1.7m + the extra
saving from sterling of $1m = $2.6m ( 2002 ..$1.462m) an increase
of 78%.
DPC management usually has a 40% dividend
payout policy. So, with status quo, I
estimate, $2.6M /20M shares X 40% = Dividend of 5.2cents
(2002..3.6cents).
Therefore, on my estimated 10cents per year dividend
payout on a growth share... $3 a share is not beyond belief,
and this is after Nov 2003, less alone at Sept 2005 or Sept
2006.
DPC has had a remarkable growth period during the last 6
years within the financial sector, and with the possible extra
money it will receive with the warrant conversion ( $17millon),with
great management, the future for DPC is looking very
rosy.
 oop Disc: own DPC, DPCWA, DPCWB | 
See IRG research reports
