Forum Archive Index - September 2003

["Dave Missen" <d.tackle@xtra.co.nz>]

Any Reputable NZ University that teaches Corporate Finance at Masters Level
has a significant component of Technical Analysis included (Eg Massey,
Auckland, Otago etc)
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Phyllis Bergquist" <phyl@clear.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, September 19, 2003 6:11 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] On-balance-volume


> Which NZ Universities teach Technical Analysis????    Phyllis.
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Dave Missen" <d.tackle@xtra.co.nz>
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Sent: Thursday, September 18, 2003 10:19 PM
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] On-balance-volume
>
>
> > With regards to TA, I have noted that a number of the academics that
teach
> > the topic at masters levels in NZ universities don't appear to be
> > multi-millionaires, and in fact have been heard to comment that they
have
> > taken severe hidings over the years relying on the traditional
statistical
> > approaches to TA.
> >
> > In saying this I don't discount the benefits of TA, I do agree with the
> > comment that the model needs to be reconsidered, but as with all things
in
> > economics the model that is being used is attempting to quantify
> > market/human behaviour which is often at best irrational.
> >
> > As such, I believe that TA should only be relied upon as yet another
> > ingredient in the decision making process regarding investment analysis.
> >
> > Some excellent material has been written on the topic and some
techniques
> > actually perform in accordance with the models put forward for short
> periods
> > but general evidence tends to show that Mr Market is far more random
than
> > statistical approaches suggest.
> >
> > Each to their own but my view is that good old fashioned fundamentals
will
> > out perform TA everytime when longer time horizons are being considered.
> > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > From: "Stephen Judd" <sljudd@paradise.net.nz>
> > To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> > Sent: Thursday, September 18, 2003 8:34 PM
> > Subject: RE: [sharechat] On-balance-volume
> >
> >
> > > On Thu, 2003-09-18 at 17:31, david.gibson wrote:
> > > > I have been thinking about the point you raised in you email:
> > > >          Dow Jones stocks have huge capitalisation trading volumes.
I
> > > >         could be argued that small-mid cap stocks have different
> > > >         characteristics to Dow Jones stocks. Any comments?
> > > >
> > > > The predominant acedemic view in the 80's and early 90's was that
the
> > > > stockmarket obeyed "the law of large numbers" and that stock time
> > > > series were a "random walk" phenomenon based on the "efficient
market"
> > > > theories.
> > > >
> > > > My personal view is that these assumptions are false.
> > > >
> > > > Conventional models based on the assumption of zero autocorrelation
of
> > > > stock trajectories  are clearly false - yet this is the dominant
view
> > > > in the acedemic literature.
> > >
> > > That's not an assumption. If you read Malkiel's "Random Walk Down Wall
> > > St", you'll see that he and his students tested TA empirically - and
> > > found that it performed no better than buy and hold, or after
brokerage,
> > > even worse. You can argue that their choice of signal might have been
> > > wrong, or that the state of the art has improved since the 80s, but
> > > their criticism was based in actual evidence, not just reasoning from
> > > first principles.
> > >
> > > Stephen
> > >
> > >
> >
>
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> > >
> >
> >
>
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