Forum Archive Index - June 2003

[Robin Benson <rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk>]

Patience Grasshopper.

Think of F&P and Michael Hill. Jumping any ditch from NZ isn't a 
short-term proposition. If you think it is, and hiccups will be few and 
far between, you need to be closer to the action.

If I had of been in the market for WHS at the time of the WHS selloff, 
it looked like a BUY to me for anything under $4.50.

In your post you've asked a lot of questions -- I've tried to answer a 
few of then, but would be interested in your answers!

Regards

Robin

disc: nil WHS

On Saturday, Jun 21, 2003, at 12:55 Europe/London, Shayne King wrote:

> -The WHS has had one profit downgrade ever and it was due to its 
> struggling Australian operations. Could this be any more of an 
> indication of the problems they are having across the ditch??

If you took the view that the market overreacted immediately prior and 
following the profit warning, you might also conclude that the 
Australian issue isn't as bad as it's made out to be.

> -"Personally I don't see the Aussie expansion as being that far off 
> track"...Please read the above again but this time, very carefully!
> -Please tell me what other "growth engines" the WHS has that are as 
> capital intensive as its Australian operations??

Can't help with either of these.

> -"Managements strengths" as an indicator of how great the WHS is?? 
> Yeah right, the CEO just resigned and he was seen by the market as 
> being amongst the top in NZ.

So the poor results were quite a surprise for the market, no?

> Why did Muir leave again??

Don't know. Speculation: difference of opinion as to how to deal with 
the Australian issue.

> Hang on, it wasnt fully disclosed! Why would that be?

Because company directors tend not to diss each another in public?

> -I am a trend follower and study the fundamentals which therefore 
> gives me an even greater perspective on how to veiw WHS shares. Why be 
> one or the other when you can have the best of both worlds.

I guess because each have their own weaknesses and benefits, and it's 
pretty difficult to separate them :O)

> -Based on the fundamentals of WHS, too many question marks over 1) 
> Australian Operations 2) resignation of CEO 3) who will be the new CEO 
> (stability factors, growth factors etc).

What would you say if the market had a good opinion of the new CEO? How 
will this affect the current market cap.?

> -From a trend followers point of view, "what the???". A close of $5.30 
> on Friday and for what reason other than supply and demand?

Sorry I don't see the point here. You just described a market dynamic.

> -Put the two together and you have..."wouldnt touch WHS with a ten 
> foot pole....at least!!!"

Unless you're willing to take on risk for possible reward.

> ...you wouldnt catch me buying into WHS under any circumstances. This 
> stock has been "infected" with the aussie bug, much like TEL was a 
> couple of years ago. And with the luxury of hindsight, this infection 
> is far from over!

Are you in the market to short WHS?


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