Forum Archive Index - June 2003

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

Les,
    The Dow had formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. These formations have 
negligible predictive value, in that they break out to the upside 43% of the 
time and to the downside 57% of the time. You may just as well toss a coin to 
decide whether it will be a reversal or a continuation pattern. However, if you 
wait for the breakout, these formations have a very low failure rate. Once a 
breakout occurs, they tend to keep going, with only about 3% failing by 
reversing, re-entering the triangle and breaking out the other side. The DJIA 
broke above the symmetrical triangle on 27/5/03.
 The Dow is now at a 10 month high, taking out the 9054 peak of 22/8/02. Who 
knows how far the current uptrend will run, but right now is the time to be 
Long.
                        Phaedrus.

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