Forum Archive Index - March 2003

[Robin Benson <rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk>]

Hi Bill

Actually, I'm wasn't asking you what the price of X or Y will be next 
week. It's quite a stretch to agree with your position on predicting 
the future however, as, I would venture, most TA people are trying to 
predict the future not in terms of price but whether a price is 
trending north or south. This is as much predicting the future as any 
rain, snow, sun or thunderstorm forcast.

I'll be following Phaedrus's charting on the stocks he's covering.

You say you're not overly concerned about all the ups and downs. It 
appears to me that you are, the difference being only one of time, 
right?

TWR? The chart of this company tells us a lot in retrospect, and I 
guess TA people would have got out mid 2002, if they ever got in. 
However, the market didn't really start punishing TWR until around the 
beginning of 2002. Turning to your question though, it would have to 
depend on the business and a perception (trust) in the sustainability 
of that business. If it was apparent that it was robust, sustainable, 
paying healthy dividends, and declining in value, One may very well 
pick up increasing parcels of shares as they become available at 
increasingly better price.

Best wishes

Robin

On Thursday, Mar 6, 2003, at 22:23 Europe/London, prhughes@value.net.nz 
wrote:

> Hi Robin
>
> Phaedrus has  forgotten more than I know, so bow to his
> knowledge and pass.
>
> My remark never buy or hold in a downtrend probably started
> this,fair enough. Which would you consider your best chance of
> success when a stock is going up or going down?Look at a chart
> of TWR and tell me.
>
>  I understand the basics reasonably well, break of trendline,
> appropriate moving average crossing,higher high and higher low
> (Dow Theory) etc.
>
> I cannot tell you what the price will be next week, I don't know.That
> is why you watch the chart, a sort of real life situation. Responsible
> TA folk never predict the future.
>
> What I am interested in is the long term trendline. Phaedrus may
> be able to post a chart from 1998 till 2003 for WHS which explains
> my situation in not to be overly concerned about all the ups and
> downs like I did before using charts. In plain English if the price 
> line
> does not break through the trend line, I would hold.
>
> Bill.


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