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From: | Robin Benson <rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk> |
Date: | Fri, 7 Mar 2003 10:32:43 +0000 |
Hi Bill Actually, I'm wasn't asking you what the price of X or Y will be next week. It's quite a stretch to agree with your position on predicting the future however, as, I would venture, most TA people are trying to predict the future not in terms of price but whether a price is trending north or south. This is as much predicting the future as any rain, snow, sun or thunderstorm forcast. I'll be following Phaedrus's charting on the stocks he's covering. You say you're not overly concerned about all the ups and downs. It appears to me that you are, the difference being only one of time, right? TWR? The chart of this company tells us a lot in retrospect, and I guess TA people would have got out mid 2002, if they ever got in. However, the market didn't really start punishing TWR until around the beginning of 2002. Turning to your question though, it would have to depend on the business and a perception (trust) in the sustainability of that business. If it was apparent that it was robust, sustainable, paying healthy dividends, and declining in value, One may very well pick up increasing parcels of shares as they become available at increasingly better price. Best wishes Robin On Thursday, Mar 6, 2003, at 22:23 Europe/London, prhughes@value.net.nz wrote: > Hi Robin > > Phaedrus has forgotten more than I know, so bow to his > knowledge and pass. > > My remark never buy or hold in a downtrend probably started > this,fair enough. Which would you consider your best chance of > success when a stock is going up or going down?Look at a chart > of TWR and tell me. > > I understand the basics reasonably well, break of trendline, > appropriate moving average crossing,higher high and higher low > (Dow Theory) etc. > > I cannot tell you what the price will be next week, I don't know.That > is why you watch the chart, a sort of real life situation. Responsible > TA folk never predict the future. > > What I am interested in is the long term trendline. Phaedrus may > be able to post a chart from 1998 till 2003 for WHS which explains > my situation in not to be overly concerned about all the ups and > downs like I did before using charts. In plain English if the price > line > does not break through the trend line, I would hold. > > Bill. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
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