Forum Archive Index - February 2003

[Robin Benson <rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk>]

Hi Richard

On Tuesday, Feb 25, 2003, at 15:43 Europe/London, Richard Hooper wrote:

> An interesting thought......is the NZSE falling because of possible future downturn in NZ economy.causing some damage??

General widespread unease I think is the largest issue.

> ......or because the NZ$ is becoming "overcooked" and looking to go higher and not necessarily going  to  create too much  damage to the already strong economy. causing  a correction within international currency ( ..I have faith in the reserve bank)  { note the no capitals in "r" and "b" ).

And this is the second-largest issue, IMO.

> Reserve Bank will be following their computer models I hope!!.
> Why  small ""r & "b" ????
> Sept is the launch of NZ super fund.......nice to be able to launch it with a high NZ$
> Hmmmmmmmm..............Smart investor may look to shift money at this time

To where? Obviously your implication is away from NZ, but where? Also, what do you say to the people who are picking US$0.60, another 10% or so, over the next wee while?

> I would assume that the Reserve Bank will not drp it's interest rates if times got tough until after Dec 2003..so ....NZ may be looking at a short sharp recession courtesy of MR

You might find NZ is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lowering interest rates to help bring down the dollar will have a flow-on effect in, say, the housing market. Is that sustainable? Check what has been happening in the UK for some interesting balancing acts ...

> Cullum super scheme
> f the economy collapses ,maybe an increase in interest rates to keep the NZ$ high..

My feeling is that there is still some room to move until exporters start hurting, but how much?

Cheers

Robin