Forum Archive Index - February 2003

[Travis Morien <travismorien@yahoo.com>]

--- gooner <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz> wrote:
> Travis
> 
> I haven't got time to argue this.
> 
> One question - you were a trader for years weren't
> you.  Why are you now the
> biggest critic of it?  You sound like you have some
> very bitter pills you
> are still swallowing.

Nah, I was a profitable trader, but found that
investment is even more profitable than that.

I also went out and got stuck hard into the research
on the actual success of technical methods and the
real world success of traders.

being unable to find a single scrap of evidence that
technical analysis works and being unable to find any
role models who have shown consistent success as
traders I concluded that the legends about trading
being the way to massive wealth are a load of BS
concocted by people trying to sell software, dodgy
seminars and unresearched books.

If you want to see a very similar discussion going on
go check out a forum where sceptics debate with
astrologers.

The sceptics come armed with statistics, the laws of
physics, real world experience and of course
persuasive logic.  None of that means a thing to
astrologers who;

* Believe in their hearts that astrology works,
although they can't provide any evidence.

* make a big deal of any forecast that comes true
while conveniently ignoring the ones that didn't.

* think that sceptics disagree with them because they
are nasty people just trying to put them down.

* argue that any debate based on logic or the laws of
physics is invalid because the universe is "magical".


Swap sceptic for fundamental analyst and astrologer
for technical analyst and all these things hold true.

Fundamental analysts say: "This map has few details
and the compass is poorly made, but if I'm right in
reading this map our goal is that bridge over there. 
We'll go to the far side of that store to avoid that
mob of rioting looters!"

Technical analysts say: "reading the map seems like
hard work, I'll just follow that mob of rioting
looters over there because they seem to know what they
are doing!"

But people that combine the two say: "It is evident
based on the probabilities that our goal is that
bridge over there, but the rioting mob of looters are
going in another direction and I'm sure if I go with
them I'll be able to make my fortune before the cops
arrive".

> Finally, thought you might be interested in this.
> 
>
www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?thesection=money&thesubsection=&storyID=
> 3101284

You think that's bad, read this!

www.travismorien.com/aca.htm

When you are done with that, look around at
www.travismorien.com where I give the low down on the
managed funds industry, explain the nature of
commissions and why this hurts the quality of advice
and why one should only use independent fee for
service financial planners.

You can find the full report on the ASIC/ACA survey at
fido.asic.gov.au

If you think that pointing out that there are a lot of
dodgy advisers is somehow supposed to annoy me or
something you are sorely mistaken, I'm an independent
100% fee for service adviser and the advice I give is
of exceptionally high quality, even if I do say so
myself.  8)

Travis
www.travismorien.com



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