Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["gooner" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

Travis

I haven't got time to argue this.

One question - you were a trader for years weren't you.  Why are you now the
biggest critic of it?  You sound like you have some very bitter pills you
are still swallowing.

Finally, thought you might be interested in this.

www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?thesection=money&thesubsection=&storyID=
3101284

----- Original Message -----
From: "Travis Morien" <travismorien@yahoo.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, February 16, 2003 11:02 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Re: CSL Chart


>
> --- nickk@quicksilver.net.nz wrote:
> > Don't waste your skin doing the typing Phaedrus.
> >
> > It's like convincing All Black supporters that
> > Australia are better at
> > Rugby.  The AB supporters just don't want to listen
> > no matter how many times
> > you try to tell them.
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Gooner
>
> Gooner, there is a big difference.
>
> If I was able to provide a large stack of academic
> evidence showing after thorough statistical testing
> that the All Blacks had lost 95% of their games....
>
> If I was able to point out that there are many great
> rugby players, based on scoring stats etc, yet unable
> to show any All Black team member had ever played at
> higher than a weekend amateur's level...
>
> If I'd backed this up with a systematic point by point
> attack of the logic behind every piece of pro-All
> Black hype....
>
> The All Blacks are a good team, I can point out that
> they have beaten many good teams and are ranked near
> the top of world rugby.  I can point out the stats of
> many individual players and show that the team has
> many world class players.  And generally speaking if
> you are going to say nice things about the All Blacks
> one has no logical claim to say otherwise because they
> certainly are a very good team.
>
> So...
>
> Where are the technical analysts with independently
> verified track records?  I can rattle off a variety of
> names like Warren Buffett, George Soros, Peter Lynch,
> Sir John Marks Templeton, John Neff, Ben Graham,
> Tweedy Brown Inc, Mario Gabelli.  Then I can name
> lesser known investors who also have outperformed by a
> huge margin, guys like Kerr Neilson (Platinum), Greg
> Perry (Colonial First State) etc.  Can anyone name a
> single famous TA exponent that didn't eventually go
> bust?
>
> If not, where is the academic evidence that TA works?
> Actually there is a vast pile that it doesn't.  This
> doesn't deter the many TA fans though because very few
> of them read research.  There is plenty of evidence
> that FA works, including backtested fundamental
> indicators.
>
> Where is the logic behind TA?  If you were looking to
> buy a business your accountant would call you an idiot
> if you choce a business based only on the recent trend
> in asking price, but this silly concept is the very
> foundation of TA.  Mind you, value investment has a
> very solid theoretical foundation.
>
> In other words, where is the beef?
>
> For every chart that Phaedrus shows us with support
> and resistance there will be several without.  For
> every trend that held out for a long time there will
> be many choppy stocks trading up and down with no
> direction for extended periods of time.
>
> It is like making the claim that red cars always
> travel in threes, and offering up as proof a few
> photographs of red cars travelling in threes.  I'd be
> able to run out and photgraph many red cars travelling
> alone or with cars of other colours, but then we'd get
> somebody try to argue that that is ok so long as we
> make the most of every opportunity to photograph three
> red cars and quickly hide our camera when red cars are
> alone.  (Stop loss)
> >
> > Phaedrus writes:
> >
> > > Travis,
> > >        Here is an 8 year chart of CSL. I have
> > marked the trendline break Buy and Sell signals for
> > you. From this you should be able to work out the
> > answers to your questions about this stock. I think
> > you will agree that the exit signals were quite
> > timely. Isn't it amazing just how linear long-term
> > trends can be? I doubt that you could have chosen a
> > better example to illustrate the value of
> > trendlines.
>
> I take it you made a fortune on the short and long
> side of CSL then, or is this another incredible
> espisode of charting's favourite game "Amaze your
> friends with incredible forecasts of the past".
>
> It just wouldn't do to write in those buy signals with
> hindsight...
>
> Travis
> www.travismorien.com
>
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