Forum Archive Index - February 2003

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

MacDunk,
        I'm glad you are beginning to realise that share trading is not easy. 
Your post does show, however, that you do not understand some very important 
points. 
 <<<"We are all doing the same thing - predicting the future of these 
companies....">>> No we are not! I have never predicted anything. Snoopy and I 
agree that neither of us are able to predict the future. The charts I post are 
all totally reactive, not predictive. 

<<<"Its noticeable that we are told how great the method is but never the 
company">>> Technical analysis studies market action. Fundamental analysis 
studies companies. It's good that you have noticed the difference here, but as 
I have stated many times, there is no need to exclusively use one method or the 
other. I advocate using FA to select companies, and using TA to time entries 
and exits. Have you read the book "What works on Wall Street"? The author 
(James P. O'Shaughnessy) found that strategies combining value and momentum 
work superbly, outperforming either of these approaches used alone. There is no 
need whatsoever to limit yourself to one or the other.
 
  <<<"...I know most of SNOOPIES selections and I would say he would know most 
of mine">>> I neither know nor care what stocks you and Snoopy hold.

 <<<"In contrast the people spouting forth all this complicated jargon never 
give an insight to what there hand looks like.">>> Nonsense. If you look very, 
very carefully at the charts I post, you will see that many of them show 
Buy/Sell signals. Do you think I am holding WHS or TLS right now, for example? 
Do you think I am holding FBU? How much insight do you want? In any case, I 
believe the stocks that I hold should be a matter of total indifference to you.
 I'm saddened that you see my posts as "spouting off". I would have hoped they 
were seen more as a sharing of ideas, perhaps illustrating methods that some 
are unfamiliar with.

 <<<"If you want to convince me ... tell me the future.">>>  I don't care 
whether I convince you or not. Just as well, really, since I can't predict the 
future.

<<<"The negative person will always rear there ugly head....">>> There is 
nothing inherently ugly in negativity. It may be well founded. It's hard to 
know what you are referring to here, but could it be the bearish charts I have 
posted on stocks like TLS, WHS, etc? The charts simply illustrate what the 
market thinks of these stocks. I don't even have an opinion!

<<<"I would be interested in a PHAEDRUS VERSUS TRAVIS predictions for a three 
month period. To show that Its not a silly game and I really am interested I 
will donate a bottle of whisky to the winner.">>> 
Duncan, it would take a lot more than a bottle of whisky to show this is not a 
silly game. For a start, I would be astonished if Travis would even entertain 
the idea, especially over a period as short as that. But, let's say we both 
indulged you, and at three months, my portfolio was worth more. Have I "won"? 
Of course not - his objectives are much longer term than that. Again, if I am 
ahead at three months, but have run much higher risks in the process, have I 
"won". You tell me. What if I am ahead at three months, but behind at three 
years? You must learn to appreciate that stockmarket investment is not about 
contests, winning, losing, being right or wrong. It is about finding an 
approach that suits you, your individual circumstances, your aims and 
aspirations. Travis is doing things his way, I am doing things my way. We have 
different aims, different personalities, different methods. In some markets his 
methods would outperform mine, and vice versa. There is no right/wrong 
winner/loser dichotomy here. Get it?
 Your challenge is to find the method(s) that best suit you and your current 
circumstances.

     Regards,
                Phaedrus.

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