Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["Hans Van der Voorn" <vandervoorn@xtra.co.nz>]

Ralph, Duncan and Michael,

 

I'm afraid to say that tidal power is so far off the screen in terms of economic viability it not even worth consideration for anyone with a commercial interest (which I assume is what we all are).

 

Windpower is not necessarily uneconomic in all cases but is clearly not economic in all cases either. Vortec is an interesting case because numerous people piled in to invest in the company despite it being completely obvious at the outset that it would all end in tears. The government was even stupid enough to give them $500,000. Why did this happen? Because naive investors thought "oh, windpower, that must be good". Never mind the figures, nor the fact that all Vortec had done was pick up a design that another large and experienced company had given up on. They had nothing really and wanted an awful lot for it.

 

The design and construction of windmills is a bit like say cars. It's not that we couldn't do it, but what competitive advantages do we have in NZ. Not many that I can see. We certainly don't have the advantages of economies of scale or international size R and D budgets or being close to markets, or even being particularly good at marketing this kind of product. Why don't we cough up a few million between us and start competing with Ford and Toyota?

 

In the case of Windflow, Mr Henderson has been trotting this around for 10 years or so. He has a mechanical design feature he developed (pitch/teeter control of the blades) while working in the UK in the early 90s. It may or may not be a great feature, but there are other ways to achieve the same ends (power electronics to correct voltage and current fluctuations). Mr Henderson is no doubt a well meaning enthusiast, but I won't be investing any of my hard earned cash with him.

 

As far as a wind farm in the South Is goes, why would you put it there?

 

It has already been pointed out on this board that there is a looming energy crunch in NZ, caused by a lack of adequate gas reserves that we have come to rely on. However this is more of a North Is problem that a South Is one. There is already a differential in electricity costs between North and South Is. I am happy to predict that North Is electricity prices will go up significantly but Sth Is prices less so.

 

A logical person would therefore construct a windfarm where it had the best economic return, ie the North Is (where most of the windiest sites are anyway). I am happy to predict that anywhere this is even marginally economic, one of the government owned generators will be there, for reasons political as much as economic. Do they want or need Mum and Dad investors, of course not. Will Windflow get the supply contract. I also predict that this would add an unacceptable level of risk to any project and a windfarm developer will buy from a reputable well established supplier, probably with various export credits and govt subsidies to enable the price to be cheaper anyway.

 

The electricity market in NZ has become very complex. It's not a place for the uninitiated. I don't think Windflow will be able to operate effectively in that  market without attaching themselves somehow to a bigger established player. One of the problems of windpower is that you have no control over how much you generate, you're at the mercy of the spot market. Then there are the disincentives built in to the line charges and transmission costs.

 

Can I suggest that if you don't understand all of these issues fairly clearly, you probably shouldn't be risking your pension fund in this area.

 

regards

 

 

Hans

----- Original Message -----

From: Ralph Redfern

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 6:26 PM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] WIND POWER.

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Duncan MacGregor

To: sharechat

Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 1:20 PM

Subject: [sharechat] WIND POWER.

There must be a reason why they don't build more wind farms to generate power.  From a complete don't know anything about the subject point of view it must be the cost to set up and run.  It sounds like a great idea but being of inventing inclination( I know what happened to some of my inventions).It cant be economical.   I feel sure someone out there could enlighten some of us potential investors with what the problem is.   I am more inclined to think unlocking the gasses in water will end up the power source of the future for all forms of energy requirements. I always had the Idea that energy pods would work.   A large tube like a jet engine anchored in rivers, mouths of harbours etc.   could be out of sight under water with a line to the shore.  I had better leave all that to someone else I have enough on the bench as it is.   Trust power have a wind farm in victoria oz, any one know the economics of that.  I feel very sure it would be of great interest to us all If someone in the business could post a reply.
                                                   CHEERS MACDUNK

  The largest wind generators are about 1 megawatt.Huntly power station is 1000 megawatts.So crudely about 1000 windmills

would be needed for 1 Huntly.There is a place for wind generators,but would you want the whole countyside dotted with visual

pollution from vast number of wind mills.There are alternatives such a tidal power as a possibility.

                                                                                                             Ralph

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