Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["gooner" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

MacDunk

 

I have to respectfully say that Hugh has a point - to an extent.  I can't see any logic in what you say.

 

To answer Hugh first:

 

The war in Iraq is a factor in the price of Gold.  It is not the only factor.  I expect Gold to get hammered once the 'war' stops (if you can call it that) and the Dow to go mental.  Not many seem to realise that Gold started to gain impetus before the Trade Towers attack. 

 

Terrorism and War are not the main push on the Gold price - the US economy and the US dollar is.  The statistics coming out of there are frightening so.  Yet, in agreement with Hugh, yes I expect Gold to take a hit.  But I also expect it to rebound in the short-medium term due to the perilous state of the US economy.  

 

Finally, if you're so sure about this Hugh (and I actually agree with you despite being in favour of Gold presently) phone CSFB or some other brokerage tomorrow; set up a futures account and take a short position in a Gold.  You'll make more than you will collecting RBD's dividend!  However, it might involve you watching a chart or two.  I know how you despise that. 

 

Now to answer you Macdunk:

 

When did the 'Gold Rush' start MacDunk?

 

I won't answer it although I have an idea.  If you are correct about it being less etc (and you might be) then Hugh and yourself might have mirror numbers.  But why do you say 'Mr Market will have his way'?  Are you saying there will be no demand for Gold after the war with Iraq finishes?  I simply cannot agree.  As I've said above, there are plenty of factors pushing the Gold price high and Iraq is only one of them.  Gold hit $420 per ounce early in 1996 and there was no war then.  

 

Then you say the 'fools that buy in late or hold too long will pay the price'.  As with Hugh, if you're so cock 'n' bull then take a short position.  The 'fools' might just do the same!  Or better still, go long on the S&P (buy a futures contract - long).  It is just as easy as buying TEL on the NZSE.  When the 'war' finishes the S&P and DOW will go bananas.  Go long - then wait a month or two and go short because it will retrace as quickly as you say Gold is going to.

 

Cheers

 

Gooner 

 

 ----- Original Message -----

From: Duncan MacGregor

To: sharechat

Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 5:40 PM

Subject: [sharechat] HUGH .REPLY PRICE OF GOLD

Hugh.   Mr Market will have his way.  The price of gold will be less than it was before the gold rush.  The fools that buy in late or hold to long will pay the price. Still I have been wrong before hope for there sake Im wrong this time.
                                                  CHEERS     MACDUNK

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