Forum Archive Index - December 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Dick,

> 
> 
>Snoopy, I'm afraid I see WRI in a considerably different light to
>you. The overly optimistic remarks made at the annual meeting On Nov
>15 now appear to be another example of the Fed Reserve chairman's
>irrational you-know-what. Only 21 days later the prognosis has 
turned upside down.
>
>

I've had a look at the speechs given by both Palmer and Freeth at the 
AGM.  It was very clear that performance will be affected by the 
weather, and that WRI are monitoring developments closely in the 
drought prone Hawkes Bay and Marlborough in particular.  21 days 
later we still have a drought in Hawkes Bay and Marlborough, so what 
is it that has turned 'upside down' as you put it?

All that has changed is that the forecast for the first half year of 
a 20% or so lower profit for the first half year (disregarding the 
restructuring costs).  I see no 'u-turn' between the two news 
releases.

Perhaps the difference of our interpretations of these news releases 
is because of our different expectations of the company?   I bumped 
up my stake in the company when it was trading at $1.04 with the 
built in expectation that profits would fall in FY2002-2003.  What 
were your expectations?

>
>
>Anyway the point of this is that I still have 10,000 
>WRI shares left and if you were genuine in what you said about
>buying at $1.20, you'd be welcome to have them. I'd need a fairly
>quick reply though.
> 
> 


I did say 'below $1.20'.  Since I see the share closed at $1.16 on 
Friday, I hope you won't be too offended if I don't take up your 
offer!   However, I am curious as to why such a seasoned investor as 
yourself would be so keen to unload a share at a forecast earning 
yield of over 15%, and a dividend yield of 14.4% (taking into account 
the latest profit downgrade).  At that rate, even if there is no 
capital appreciation in WRI for years, who cares?  OTOH, if you have 
investments with a better projected return than that in your sights 
please share them with us!

SNOOPY

discl: Hold WRI

---------------------------------
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