Forum Archive Index - October 2002

[" Hans van der Voorn" <vandervoorn@xtra.co.nz>]

Phaedrus,

I thought that a double top would be confirmed when the index went below
2860, and was expecting that to be a significant bearish signal.

I follow various technical commentators on the US and UK indices, most of
whom have been very bearish on US indices in particular, confirmed head and
shoulders patterns, Elliot waves etc. My interest was in seeing if the All
Ords is likely to follow suit.

I used to think that TA was akin to voodoo or astrology but in following the
arguments for the last year or so the techies seemed to have been predicting
the outcomes fairly acccurately.

I subscribe to various services from a UK site called Hemscott
(www.hemscott.net). They have one called Hemscott Analyst where they pick
various undervalued stocks, mostly small caps. The reports are prepared by a
fundamentalist. Typically they do a fundamental analysis on a stock with a
good story, low PEG, good cash flows etc. This would be accompanied by a
techical analysis from their charting expert (Bill Adlard, who also has his
own report called Hemscott Chart Insight). When the market was performing
reasonably well, they were usually in sync. On the odd occasion when they
weren't the fundamentalist would still recommend it, but mostly be proved
wrong later. As the market started to deteriorate, the fundamentalist would
pick a stock as a buy, and Bill would recommend it as a short. The
fundamentalist was obviously getting grumpy about it so out came an email
saying they wouldn't be putting Bill's comments in in future as it was too
confusing for the readers.

At one stage Bill had become so bearish the others obviously thought he was
in cuckoo land. However as events transpired, Bill has been proven to be
nearly 100% correct, with a number of the fundamentalist recommendations
made against Bill's advice becoming complete disasters ( I lost 90% on one
of them). From my own perspective his analysis has saved me a lot of money,
and would have saved me more had I followed his advice more diligently. This
was obviously also the experience of many others, with Bill's commentaries
now being reinstated in the Analyst reports.

If anyone wants to check these out, you can sign up for a free two week
trial to both the Analyst and the Chart Insight services (log on to the
Hemscott site above and follow the instructions). This enables you to read
the archive of previous articles. There is an interesting one on charts vs
fundamentals dated 17 July 2002, and several others on DJIA, FTSE, UK
Banking sector.



Hans





----- Original Message -----
From: "Phaedrus" <Phaedrus@techemail.com>
To: <Sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 11:06 AM
Subject: [sharechat] All Ords Index


> Hans,
>       With regard to the All Ords Index, you asked "what do I see coming
up next".
>  I have no idea. I can tell you that this index is at an interesting
point, in that if it continues to fall, a double top formation will have
been confirmed. Confirmed double top formations after uptrends mark trend
reversals 75% of the time. The other 25% become consolidations of the
prevailing trend.
>  Should the index rise, it could be entering a trading range, as marked on
the chart below. You don't really think I can see into the future do you?
Given the strong US rally yesterday, I'll bet the All Ords Index is up
today, though!
>
> Holden,
>        Re .gif format  - I didn't realise that the ScreenHunter program
wouldn't run on Linux. I guess you can't give Microsoft the finger and
expect to get away with it without some disadvantages. Can you not instal
the GIMP? (Not that I know what one is!)
>  Data supplies for MetaStock or any other charting program are very cheap.
There are several vendors, with prices of around $17 - $24/month for NZ
data, for example. It only takes a minute or two each day to download the
new data and merge it with your database. You don't have to do it every day
if you don't want to - the files simply accumulate. You can even get free
data if you want, for example Sanfords provide free Australian data for
their clients. With excellent free charting facilities now available on the
net, buying your own software and data is no longer a necessity.
>
>                 Phaedrus.
>
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