Forum Archive Index - October 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi winner69,
 
>
>
>Hardly been any mention lately of one of most talked about stocks on
>sharechat over the years - RBD
>
>

I must admit I've been waiting for the 'please explain' notice to 
come in from the NZSE.

The only thing I could think of was the rise in the NZD/AUD exchange 
rate which would reduce any profits from Australia.  However, as 
Australia is still in the development phase and they are making 
losses there a rise in the NZD should be positive for RBD!

>
> 
>Panic-E-Button said on Sept 10th (quote) "No dividend payment. Watch
>for this month announcement and see the share price diving"
>
>

I saw 'Panic-E-Button 's post.  Nothing really to back it up.  Annual 
dividend rate is 10c per share (interim 4.5c and final 5.5c).  $1.58 
gives a dividend yield of 6.3%, which equates to a before tax rate of 
9.6%.   Growth prospects have slowed in the short term with Starbucks 
approaching saturation and Australia still in the red.  With short 
term growth factored out of the equation perhaps $1.58 is reasonable? 
But I'm predicting the result won't be as bad as the market feared 
and the share price will bounce.


> 
>Last years dividend was 12 cents (12 months worth of the 15 months
>dividend). If this is repated then RBD at $1.58 is a steal.
>
>

As you said that dividend was for a 15 month period so won't be 
repeated.  This information has been in the public domain for months.
Expected Annual dividend rate is 10c, made up of 4.5c interim and 
5.5c final.

I take a long term view of RBD.   MD Jim Collier has proved an astute 
manager and Victoria Australia is his old stomping ground.  Perhaps 
some investors were expecting too much of his push into Australia too 
soon.  I am patient, and I don't see the current decline in share 
price as any reason to panic.

SNOOPY

discl: Hold RBD



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