Forum Archive Index - September 2002

["Harold J Skinner" <Petzl@spamcop.net>]

These are *my* thoughts on trading in Speculative stocks

With Rivkin or anyone else also check the T/A which I use as a "Lie
detector" for me *both* have to be good

Rivkin always sets a Limit which on broadcast he mentioned around 28 cents
You can hear what he actually said here
http://www.geocities.com/petzlx/K.html
Realplayer needed and will play on a 28.8 connection
(his opinion is the downside for this stock is 22 cents from 28 although *I*
think it is going to be hard to get in at this price)

I use "STOPS"  in "semi-risky" or speculative ventures.
I think 25% is a good one for *this* stock but one can also use a tighter
stop of say 10%  or whatever
This stop must "trail" the share price any fall back in price sell

Do not *over buy* these shares if they do not hit oil they will retrace
fast!
During drilling the price of these stocks will go up.
Australians will be "ramping" the potential so remember they are prone to
exaggerate events and take care accordingly.

Another idea is to consider part selling shares on way up, example in the
likely event of them doubling in price sell say half to cover your
investment/risk tolerance

************************
This is the T/A for PSA (also good)

Nice looking long term basing pattern and that means this stock has big
mover potential. The close above 19c was the first buy trigger for this
stock. I would be confident about the uptrend every time it takes out a
recent high. There should be support at 15c.

Petsec Energy (PSA)Oil and gas explorer

Petsec Energy has been forming one big bottom for nearly two years. Is it
time to buy?

Blueprint

PSA has an ideal history. It has shown us how it forms a bottoming pattern,
the speed and distance of its uptrends, and the same for its downtrends. The
chart gives us the most insightful information about how to trade this
stock.

The Journey

>From 1990 when PSA listed, until 1993, this stock was forming a classic
base. There were many tests of the low at 14c between October 1990 and
November 1992. However the first buy signal for this stock came in August
1993 when the price broke the 26c high of the range. This was the start of a
rally that took the stock to $7.40 in September 1997. For most of 1998, SPA
fell at double speed giving back nearly all of the gains made in the
previous four years. A small rally in 1999 proved to be a dead cat bounce
and the stock continued past the 33c low, making a new all-time lows at 8.1c
in May 2000.

New Horizons

Since the 8.1c low PSA has formed another classic basing pattern. The high
of this pattern is 19c, which was hit in July 2000 and June 2001. Last week
PSA went as high as 20c, closing at 19.5c.

Outlook

PSA has retreated since breaking the 19c range high. The close above 19c was
a buy signal. For a more cautious approach you could wait for another break
of the latest highs. First target on the upside is 31c. However going on
past performance the current launching pad could yield a much higher upside.
A close below 8.1c and the outlook changes to bearish.

Support:- 0.125; 0.081

Resistance:- 0.19-0.20; 0.31; 0.55; 0.72; 1.82; 2.89


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