Forum Archive Index - September 2002

["nick" <helmett@xtra.co.nz>]

        Hi all,

i think the main point of my post was missed, i wasnt trying to run down T.A or start another T.A v fundamental debate.   What i was trying to put across was that my returns have suffered since discovering the internet and the stock forums.

    

  I am not trying out a new method, simply going back to me old one, ie buying quality and holding it.  I think one area that the internet/ computers is affecting life is that it is speeding everything up. This isnt necessarily a good thing. Its now so easy to buy and sell shares and there are so many people advocating different approaches and different stocks that it is all too easy to be switching in and out of stocks on the slightest dip or negative sentiment.

 

    I actually believe the best method is to use eyes and ears to see what the people on the street like to buy.  This has lead me to buy Montana, Restaurant brands, Frucor, Sky city etc.  I bought wrightsons for 45cents when i heard farmers in ashbuton were starting to buy equipment .  Basically if you buy stocks that make money, with products people like its hard to go wrong.

 

    I would never have bought the likes of ITC if i had not spent time on the forums. These are the type of stocks that have started to hurt my returns. Did i really by aquaria 21? if you just buy quality stocks that make money and are not cyclical, technical or blue sky then it is hard to go wrong.

 

     This is the reason i have now sunk my trading portion of my account into the warehouse. I dont need to check the stock price, just need to look at the queue at the mall just before opening to see my investment is good.  Dont need a uptrend, moving average or spastic stochastic to see that the warehouse will give me a good return.

 

     Somebody was saying you have to invest heavily in time, books etc whether T.A or fundamental , i disagree, for the average investor/ would be trader i think less is more.  The more you chase wealth the more allusive it is.   Better to buy a quality stock and wait for wealth to come to you.

 

       When will i sell the Warehouse, maybe never!  unless there is a fundamental change in the company and it starts to go into decline then i will not sell. 

       Frucor was a case in point , i bought this stock with the intention of holding, and it was only the forced takeover that prized my shares away, i still believe the offer was way too low and notice that V seems to be as popular as ever.

 

       There has been talk about how much people should diversify,  until i went online i only held four stocks, they were all long term and doing well, after being on the forums a while it made me itchy to buy some of the stocks people were raving about. I sold one of my core four stocks and split it into smaller amounts so i could have more pieces of cake.   Looking at returns this strategy did not work so well.   I will be going back to the approach of having just two or three quality stocks that are both growing and paying dividends.

 

The key point is that when i am out and about i will be able to see how the stocks are doing by the popularity of the products. When i owned frucor i would frequently ask shopkeepers how sales were going, i will now be taking a similar interest in the warehouse.

          Imagine trying to find out what aquaria 21 or ITC were up to.

 

      

 

    Nick