Forum Archive Index - August 2002

["andrew cottingham" <arco@adinfinitum.co.nz>]

Good Morning Snoopy
Yes, the GMF chart was the NZ one, and I realised after reading your post
again, although the initial mention was re the NZ stock you referred later
to the AUS stock. The two do seem to mirror each other as you will see from
the GMF.ax chart attached. On the AUS chart $1.72-$1.76 is the current
resistance area.

It is perhaps important to remember 'Rising wedges' do have a failure rate
of around 24% (according to Bulkowski), however you will notice on the lower
pane that RSI is in bearish divergence with the rising price and this is
also a negative factor.
Forearmed is forewarned.
Andrew

----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] GMF


> Hi Andrew,
>
> Thanks for the extended chart.  It shows that over a 3-4 year
> timeframe GMF has been a fairly mediocre investment for the buy and
> hold investor.  What the chart doesn't show is the dividend payments,
> totalling around A28c per share summed over the 3 year period that
> the share has been trading at less than $NZ2  ( I think you are
> using the NZ price Andrew, correct? ).   28c Australian works out at
> around 34c New Zealand.   Add dividends to the chart to get a 'gross'
> chart and the returns look a little better.
>
> I don't know about 'rising wedge patterns' , but on a purely
> fundamental basis I have a feeling that something might happen to
> disturb the current trend.  It is hard to see why the GFW shareprice
> would go into reverse from here, so I'd pick a flattening out of the
> uptrend until things consolidate a bit.  The market really needs to
> get a handle on what the 'new' GFW is going to perform like before
> the share price can go very far as I see it.
>
> As I said in my last two posts on this share.  I think it is one to
> sit back and keep an eye on.  One to watch.
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
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>

CP30GMF.gif

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