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I agree with Nick in some respects and Steven in
others. I can see a rally soon....it won't last long though. Maybe
2-4 weeks. I expect PPT to buy up large.
The rally cannot hide the truth however. The
market will win and that market will produce a recession in US next
year. Here mid - late next year maybe 2004. Once the US consumer
stops spending the US will close its doors to exports (or stop importing,
whatever way you look at it). Our export sector will start crying in their milk
(oops sorry Fonterra...no pun intended!). The rising dollar will hurt
exporters too. The latest US trade figures saw the trade deficit @ US 34
billion for the last quarter. The US economy is slowing grinding to a
great, big, fat, halt.
In February next year 'Dubbya' will try to kill
Saddam and Oil prices will go ballistic. Gold will follow. I'm
already looking at Oil future markets which will be new investing for
me.
Let's have a guess at the next company
to report dodgy stuff. I say AOL/Time Warner. We live in
interesting times.
Cheers.
Nk
---- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 2:06
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Time for the
troops to rally around the flag
Nick,
I don't think all of the selling this
morning was panic, the selling has been driven by falling earnings and
future downgrades eg. Sun Micro Systems
These companies are just not making as much money
as everybody thought they were going to. On an earnings basis the Dow / Nasdaq
/ S & P are still overvalued by 20-30 %.
My view would be that eventually these
markets will fall further. Time will tell.
Regards
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 1:41
PM
Subject: [sharechat] Time for the
troops to rally around the flag
The DOW is going to recover
next week, today we saw some panic and on monday the weak hands will after a
weekend of fretting cash in their chips. Then there will be a rally.
I suspect it would be a mistake to sell NZ stocks on monday, there are
very good reasons why the NZ market should not crash like the DOW and any
selloff is likely to be very shortlived.
It is always darkest before the dawn and it is in these times we see who
has the balls for the markets.
Who had the minerals to buy AIR NZ in
september when they were 15c?.
Remember one important fact, our stocks are not overvalued and any fear
induced selling should be a big buy signal. Buy on mondays lows and if the
DOW capitulates on monday buy more NZs on tuesday.
To sell on monday would mark you down as weak and scared. Dont think you
can sell and buy back cheaper it wont work. The market will open very low
and you will be the mug who sold at the bottom. If you were going to
sell it should of been weeks ago, most sensible people have been largely
cashed up since april/may . The other approach is to just hold and
wait for the storm to pass.
Sell in fear on monday morning would be like cowering in your trench when
the lads went over the top. Get a grip and enjoy the ride
Time to show those lilly livered yanks that in NZ we are made of stronger
stuff and are not going to throw in the towel because of a few bent CEOs,
dodgy techs and the ghost of a dead towel head
Nick
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