Forum Archive Index - June 2002

[nickk@quicksilver.net.nz]

Thank you nick.

I wasn't going to bother.  I have beaten this drum enough.  Although I
would have thought selling in the face of world uncertainty is very
discipined.  Never mind - Snoopy and I will have to agree to disagree.

Cheers

Nk

nick writes:

>     I will have to stick up for Nick kearney here
> 
>    Snoopy wrote---a  declining US sharemarket is not news.  The DOW and 
>NASDAQ has been 
> fairly toppy for a couple of years now.  So 'suddenly realizing this' 
> to the extent that you must sell everything on Monday is, I believe, 
> an expression of extreme jitteriness.  If you are an investor you t totally 
>silly 
> need to be disciplined.  Nick's post shows no sign of discipline.
> 
>        One could also argue that the NZ market is now looking very toppy, 
>making today a good time to sell.  Sure the US market has been doing poorly 
>for sometime but many felt it was going to start heading upwards after april. 
>That hasnt happened and there now appears a real danger of sharp declines.
>       The australian market until recently was doing well too just like NZ . 
>Yet now that too has turned very bearish, hasnt fallen much yet but the 
>potential is there.  Our market has held out longer than the others but now 
>looks like the only way to go is down.
>          So for Nick to sell all his holdings today  is not totally silly, he 
>will be getting out while the going is still good and he will have funds to 
>reinvest after a correction.
>    You say that a correction of 10-20% is normal, well even if it is normal 
>why stick around for it? especially when commision costs of selling and 
>rebuying are only around 2%. Plus there is always a chance the correction wont 
>be "normal" in which case he would only be panicking once the market had 
>already fallen, better out now.
>          You may argue there may be no correction and that he will miss out 
>on the NZ market surging up in the next few months, personally i think there 
>is more chance of hell freezing over
> 
> Nick  (ratkin, lippy et al)
> 
> 




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