Forum Archive Index - June 2002

[hugh webber <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I have a fair amount of empathy with Nick - see below from today's Bloomberg - 
and I'm already
totally into cash,
and I'm staying there, at least until after the election or I see some really 
good NZSE bargains.
My NZ worry is that our export led expansion is being/has been choked off by 
the rising NZ dollar
while small minded people sit around going Ooh, that makes our next overseas 
trip cheaper!

NZ retail sales obviously can't keep up the cracking pace of more than a year 
and already have
started to
wilt. And we're slowly being strangled by Reserve Bank rate rises.

It's likely that the election will produce a hung Parliament as National makes 
even a dead cat
bounce
along with the minor parties - Winston always polls much better on the day than 
the knowing
observers predict not that I'm a Winston fan. The NZSE would not find a hung 
Parliament to its 
liking particularly with the Greens having the balance of power. The only good 
news is the poll
showing Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will lose her Coromandel seat 
after Labour
at last decides to stand up and fight in Coromandel, but even that hasn't 
stopped the Greens
getting to 9%+ in the polls.

Food for thought.

Top Financial News 

06/22 10:39
Indexes May Fall Past Post-Sept. 11 Lows: U.S. Stocks Outlook
By Josh P. Hamilton 
New York, June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks, battered by five weeks of 
declines, may continue to
fall on concerns about slowing earnings growth, terrorism and corporate 
accounting practices,
investors and analysts say. 
``The market has disconnected from the improving economy,'' said Philip 
Orlando, who manages $6
billion as chief investment officer at Value Line Asset Management. ``Fear is 
winning over greed''
as investors focus on the possibility of another terrorist attack or other 
potential catastrophes,
Orlando said. 


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